The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

by Carlene Sandstrom

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

Hello there. I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Welcome to the latest episode of Monday with Matthew.

Over the past several weeks I’ve gotten a lot of messages from you wanting me to discuss the spike in mortgage rates that followed comments by the Federal Reserve, but also asking me if there will be any impacts to the housing market following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. This is clearly a hot topic right now, so today we are going to take a look at how these events have impacted mortgage rates, but also look at how this may have changed my mortgage rate outlook for 2022. So, let’s get to it.

Weekly Mortgage Rates

A graph titled "Weekly Mortgage Rates" showign the US weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Beginning in January 2020, the rates were roughly 3.7%, falling to an all-time low of 2.67% in January 2021, before rising back to 3.92% in February 2022. Rates rose from 3.11% at the end of 2021 to 3.92% in just eight weeks.

Here is a chart that shows how rates have moved over the past two years or so using Freddie Mac’s average weekly rate for a conforming 30-year mortgage. You’ll see that rates were falling in early 2020, but when COVID-19 was announced as a pandemic they spiked, but almost immediately the Fed announced their support for the economy by implementing a broad array of actions to keep credit flowing and limit the economic damage that the pandemic would likely create. And part of that support included large purchases of U.S. government and mortgage-backed securities. With the Fed as a major buyer of mortgage securities, rates dropped ending 2020 at a level never seen in the more than 50 years that the 30-year mortgage has been with us.

In early 2021, rates started to rise again as the country became more confident that the pandemic was coming under control, but all that changed with the rise the Delta variant of COVID-19 which pushed rates lower through mid-summer. As we again started to believe that COVID was under control and a booster shot became available, you’ll see rates resumed their upward trend in August.

What has everyone worried today is this spike that really took off at the end of last year. A jump of almost a full percentage point in just eight short weeks understandably has a lot of agents, buyers, and sellers, concerned about what impacts this might have on what has been a remarkably buoyant housing market. Now, rates rising so quickly was unusual, but not unprecedented. If you really wanted to be scared, I’d regale you with stories from 1980 when mortgage rates jumped by over 3.5% in less than eight weeks.

Anyway, before we really dig into this topic, some of you may be thinking to yourselves that my numbers have to be wrong because they differ from the rates you have been looking at. This is due to the fact that the Freddie Mac survey methodology is different from other rate surveys but, even though their rates may not match the ones you’ve been seeing from other data providers, the trend is still consistent.

So, let’s chat for a bit about what caused the spike in rates. You know, it’s always good to have a villain in any story and the primary but certainly not sole culprit responsible for the jump in rates is—you guessed it—the Federal Reserve.

As I mentioned earlier, the Fed was the biggest buyer of pools of home loans (otherwise known as mortgage-backed securities) as we moved through the pandemic, but last December they announced an end to what had been an era of easy money by winding down these purchases in order to lay the groundwork for shrinking their 2.7 trillion—yes I said “trillion”—dollar stockpile of MBS paper they had built up. This decision to move from “quantitative easing” to “quantitative tightening” so rapidly had an almost immediate impact on mortgage rates simply because the market was going to lose its biggest buyer of mortgage bonds.

Immediately on the heels of their announcement, bond sellers raised the interest rate on their bond offerings to try and find buyers other than the Fed, so lenders raised the rates on mortgages housed within these bond offerings. Finally, mortgage brokers moved quickly to raise the rates that they were quoting to the public. The result of all this was that rates leapt. Although we know that the primary party responsible for rates rising was the Fed, there were other players too, and here I am talking about inflation—and as you are no doubt aware—it too started to spike at the beginning of this year and now stands at a level not seen since 1982. And if you’re wondering why inflation is important. Well, high inflation is a disincentive to bond buyers because if the rate of return, or interest on mortgage bonds, is lower than inflation, investors lose interest pretty quickly.

So, we can blame the Fed, we can blame inflation, but what about Russia? Well, their invasion of the Ukraine on February 24 has certainly influenced mortgage rates, but maybe not in the way you might expect. In general, when there’s any sort of global or national geopolitical event, investors tend to gravitate to safety, and this invariably means a shift out of equities and into bonds.

So you would be correct is thinking that at face value Russia was actually responsible for the tiny drop in rates we saw following the invasion, and also the more significant drop we saw last week when the market saw the biggest two-day drop in rates in over a decade. But before you start to think that rates are headed back to where they were a year ago, I’ve got some bad news for you. That is almost guaranteed not to happen.

Given what we know today, the terrible conflict in Eastern Europe is highly unlikely to push rates back down to where they were at the start of this year, but they will—at least for now—act as a headwind to rates continuing to head higher at the pace we have seen over recent weeks. That will continue until the conflict is hopefully peaceably concluded. And although the Ukraine situation is unlikely to have any significant impact up or down on mortgage rates, there are some indirect impacts which could negatively hit the housing market. Now I’m talking about oil.

Russia is the third largest energy producer in the world and an already tight global oil supply could get even tighter following newly announced financial sanctions on Russia. A barrel of oil has jumped by almost $20 to $109 a barrel since the start of the occupation and, if the occupation is sustained, and Russia is faced with even greater sanctions, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price of gas rise by between 20 and 40 cents a gallon. And it’s this, in concert with already high inflation, which will directly hit consumers wallets and this itself could certainly impact mortgage borrowing. So we can blame the Fed, we can blame inflation and we can blame Russia for the jump in rates, but are the rates you are seeing today really something to lose sleep over? I actually don’t think so. At least not yet.

Even with mortgage rates where they are today, I look at them and think to myself that they are still exceptionally low by historic standards and that there really is no need for panic. But let me explain my thinking to you. To do this, we will take a look at the impact of rising mortgage rates, not as it relates to buyers’ ability to finance a home purchase, but on how it impacts their monthly payments.

Hypothetical Home Purchase

A graphic title "Hypothetical Home Purchase." It shows that a home sold at the same price of $370,100 in June 2021 versus February 2022, financed at 2.96% and 4.06% respectively, generates a PITI payment of $1,682 and $1,864 respectively, meaning that buyers will pay just $182 more per month to buy the same home.

For this example, we’ll use the peak sale price for a single-family home in America, which was just over $370,000 back in June of last year. And to finance this purchase, a buyer was lucky enough to lock in the lowest mortgage rate for that month at 2.96%. Assuming that they put 20% down, and are paying the U.S. average homeowners insurance premium and average property taxes a buyer closing on that home in June of last year would have a monthly payment of $1,682.

Now, what if a buyer had bought the exact same house but in February of this year? Well, the average rate for the third week of February was 4.06%—a big jump from last June—and higher mortgage rates would have increased their payment to $1,864. What does this all mean? Well, a jump of over a full percentage point means that the monthly payment is more, but only a relatively modest $182. So, even though rates have risen by almost a full percentage point, the increase in payments was, I think you’ll agree, relatively nominal.

But what if rates had risen to 5%? Well, that would be a very different picture with payments increasing by a far more significant $348. Of course, this is a very simplistic way of looking at it as I have not included any other debt payments that a buyer may have, but I hope that it does demonstrate that, even though mortgage rates are certainly significantly higher than they were last summer, because we started from such a low basis, monthly payments have seen a relatively modest increase. The bottom line is that rates were never going to hold at the record lows we have seen, and we need to just accept the fact that they will continue trending higher as we move through the year but are yet at a level that suggests impending doom for the housing arena. So, where do I think that rates will be by the end of this year? Well, here is my very latest forecast for the rest of this year.

Mortgage Rates Forecast

A bar graph titled "Mortgage Rates Forecast" showing the average 30-year mortgage rate history. In Q1 of 2020, the rate is at 3.51%, dipping to 2.76% in Q4 2020 before rising back up to 3.08% in Q4 2021. Matthew Gardner forecasts a rate of 3.71% in Q1 2022, 3.84% in Q2 2022, 3.92% in Q3 2022, and 4.07% in Q4 2022.

Given all we know in respect to the Fed and the current situation in Ukraine, my model suggests a significant jump in the first quarter, but then the pace of increase slows significantly and we will end this year at a rate that is almost half a percentage point above the forecast I offered at the start of the year.

Forecasts From Various Analysts

A bar graph titled "Forecasts from Various Analysts" showing Q4 2022 forecasts for conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie Mae forecasts 3.7%, Freddie Mac forecasts 3.74%, NAR forecasts 3.9%, Redfin forecasts 3.9%, Kiplinger and Wells Fargo both forecast 4%, Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts 4.3%, and Matthew Gardner forecasts 4.07%.

Of course, this is the opinion of just one economist, so I thought it would be useful for you to see what others are thinking. And amazingly enough, most of us—at least for now—are still in a pretty tight range regarding our expectations for the average rate in the 4^th quarter of 2022 with Fannie Mae at the low end of the spectrum and the Mortgage Bankers Association at the high end.

I honestly believe that, all things being equal, the impact of higher mortgage rates is unlikely to significantly impact the U.S. market this year and, even with rates rising, the market will remain tight in terms of supply and will continue to favor home sellers. That said, once we break above 4.5%, I would expect to see the increased cost of financing having a greater impact on not just on demand but on price growth, too.

And if you are wondering why I am so sure about this, it’s simply because we saw the exact same situation in 2018 when rates rose to 4.9% and we saw a palpable pull back in sales; which dropped from an annual rate of 5.4 million to 5 million units and the pace of price growth dropped from 5.9% to 3.3%. Now, I don’t see rates getting close to 5% for quite some time and therefore still expect demand to remain robust—off the all-time highs we have seen—but still solid given demographically-driven demand as well as increasing demand from buyers trying to find a new home before rates much further.

Of course, the impact of rates rising will not be felt equally across all markets. Many areas, and especially in coastal States, have seen home values skyrocket to levels that are well above the national average. Although incomes are generally higher in these markets, buyers in more expensive areas will feel more pain from higher financing costs.

And there you have it. I hope that today’s chat has not only given you some additional tools to use in your day-to-day business but has also given you enough information to hopefully ease some of the worry that many of you are feeling right now. As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month.

Sellers • March 7, 2022

Working with a Real Estate Agent to Sell Your Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A real estate agent enters her clients’ home with a folder in her hands.

A real estate agent is an invaluable asset. They will work with you to get your home sold for the best price and in a timely manner. Before you find the right agent to sell your home, it’s important to understand how you can work together toward a successful sale. The following information will help you prepare for your discussions with your agent.

Working with a Real Estate Agent to Sell Your Home

Before you choose a real estate agent, determine your wants and needs and create realistic goals. Even though your agent is the one with the expertise, the tools, and the know-how, no one knows your home like you do, and the clearer you can communicate your aspirations, questions, and concerns to your agent, the more you’ll inform their decision-making process. Even something seemingly small, like sharing your preferred method of communication, can help them understand how you can best work together.

A great first step is to determine your pricing goals for your home. Your agent will conduct a comparative market analysis (CMA) to determine the value of your home, which will allow them to price it accurately. If there is a large discrepancy between what you were hoping your home would sell for and its actual value, your agent will be able to explain the factors that influence home prices and clarify whether it’s the right time to sell.

Prepare a list of all remodels and renovations you’ve completed on the home so your agent can understand how much you’ve invested in the property and the scope of work it took to get it in its current condition.

You should also set expectations for open houses and showings. Your agent will go to great lengths to effectively market your home, but by understanding your schedule ahead of time, you’ll be able to better communicate your availability when it comes time to engage with buyers. Talk to your agent about how to prepare your home for open houses and tours, the process for screening potential buyers, and which safety precautions to take before conducting walkthroughs.

Once you’ve found a buyer for your home, your agent will work with you through the purchase and sale agreement. This contract will outline the terms of the agreement between you and the buyer, spelling out the finer points of the transaction, such as the receipt of earnest money, any addendums and/or contingencies, inspection terms, etc. Your agent will also negotiate with the buyer’s agent to determine a closing date and will communicate which settlement fees you may incur, if any.

A real estate agent talks to a client on the phone while working on their laptop.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: shironosov

Benefits of Working with a Real Estate Agent

Working with an agent is the best way to ensure that your home is accurately priced. Incorrect pricing can be one of the costliest mistakes in selling a home. Beyond their talent for number crunching, your agent will be there to hear your ideas, answer your questions, and allay your fears. Selling a home can be an emotional roller coaster but having an agent by your side through it all can make it a much smoother ride.

Not only are real estate agents licensed professionals who possess a wealth of knowledge about the process of selling a home and how to navigate your local market conditions, but they are also well-connected. Selling a home requires looping in multiple professionals from a variety of disciplines. Whether it’s a lawyer, home inspector, appraiser, remodeling contractor, etc., your agent can help you find the professionals you need throughout your home selling journey.

Design • February 14, 2022

Colorful Modern Design Trends for Your Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A colorful living room / open kitchen area.

Designing your home can feel like trying to put together a puzzle. While neutrals can help create consistency and set a calming tone in your home, color is often the missing puzzle piece that ties everything together and gives your home the life you’re looking for. Certain color combinations can create a sense of timelessness while others can help make your spaces feel modern.

Colorful Modern Design Trends for Your Home

In recent years, sustainability, multifunctionality, and the integration of natural elements into the home have cemented themselves as modern design trends that possess serious staying power. These trends go hand-in-hand with many aspects of modern life and are often the basis of homeowners’ decorations decisions. Here’s how you can you use color to create a modern look in your home.

A colorful kitchen with mint green cabinets and red accents.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Source: Dreamer Company

Say “So Long!” to Neutrals

A combination of factors—people spending more time at home, remote work becoming more prevalent, the lasting effects on home life throughout the COVID-19 pandemic—have created a shift in how neutrals are viewed. Moving forward, expect to see a different take on the old “less is more” saying when it comes to home décor. Colors are officially back. Instead of minimalist, white-washed backdrops, designers suggest experimenting with more colorful landscapes to create vibrant, lively spaces. Now is the time to consider painting your kitchen cabinets something vibrant, add those multi-colored throw pillows that may have previously seemed too bold, or try out that wild idea you had for a gallery wall.

A colorful bedroom with blue walls, an orange lamp, and multicolored pillows and bedspread.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Source: Onzeg

Healing Colors

Recent times have raised homeowners’ collective awareness about the meaning of the spaces they live in and how they impact their overall wellbeing. This perspective shift has elevated the importance of earthy tones. Deep greens, organic browns, rust-tinged oranges, calming blues, and illuminating yellows are all colors that bring natural elements to mind—i.e., plants, running water, the sun. Let your imagination run wild with ways that you can incorporate these colors into your home to give it a modern effervescence.

A colorful living room with orange and yellow accents, a houseplant, and a large bookshelf behind the couch.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Source: onurdongel

Other Colorful Trends for Your Home

Tile and furniture are some other larger surface areas that can greatly benefit from a splash of color. Different tile designs can evoke different aspects of modern design and help to liven up backsplash-heavy spaces like your kitchen or your bathroom where white subway tile may leave something to be desired. Give yourself carte blanche when searching for colorful furniture. Explore bold patterns and different color combinations that complement other items in the spaces they’ll inhabit.

A colorful bathroom with orange tile flooring and orange and yellow accents.

Market News • Matthew Gardner Report • Regional Market Updates • February 10, 2022

Q4 2021 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Carlene Sandstrom

Q4 2021 Western Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Just when we thought COVID was starting to pull back, the Omicron variant made its presence known. It is still too early to suggest that this has affected the region’s economic recovery—we won’t likely know for certain until we get more job data. I remain hopeful that this latest spike in infections will not have too much of an impact, but only time will tell. To date, the region has recovered all but 51,000 of the 297,000 jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. Some of the region’s smaller counties, including Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam, have seen a full job recovery. The most recent data (November) shows the regional unemployment rate at a very respectable 3.3%, which is below the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. The lowest unemployment rates were in King and San Juan Counties, where 2.9% of the labor force was out of work. The highest rate was in Grays Harbor County, which registered 5.1%. I still expect to see a full job recovery by this summer. However, there is a growing labor shortage holding the area back. Hopefully, this will change, but some industry sectors—especially hospitality—continue to find it hard to attract workers.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of the year, 22,161 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2020 and down 18.8% from the third quarter.

❱ The reason there were lower year-over-year sales is simply because the number of homes for sale was down more than 30%. The drop between third and fourth quarters is likely due to seasonality changes in the market.

❱ Although home sales were lower in most markets, there was a significant uptick in Grays Harbor and Thurston counties. The number of homes sold dropped across the board compared to the third quarter.

❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed sales outpacing listings by a factor of 5.2. The market is supply starved and unfortunately, it’s unlikely enough homes will be listed this spring to satisfy demand.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Home prices rose 15.1% compared to a year ago, with an average sale price of $711,008. This was 2.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2021.

❱ When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan and Jefferson counties. All but two markets saw prices rise more than 10% from a year ago.

❱ Relative to the third quarter, every county except Island (-8.6%), Mason (-5.2%), Lewis (-2.9%), King (-2.1%), Cowlitz (-1.7%), and Kitsap (-0.9%) saw sale prices rise.

❱ Mortgage rates rose more than .2% between the third and fourth quarters, which may have impacted prices. Affordability constraints continue to grow, which is also likely to have played a part in slowing gains.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ It took an average of 23 days for homes to sell in the final quarter of 2021. This was 8 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 6 more days than in the third quarter of last year.

❱ Snohomish, Thurston, King, and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of between 13 and 16 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 33 fewer days for a seller to find a buyer.

❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. Every county except Whatcom saw market time rise compared to the third quarter.

❱ Longer days on market might suggest that things are starting to slow, but I don’t actually think this is the case. I believe buyers are being a little more selective before making offers, and many may be waiting in the hope that supply levels will improve in the spring.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The housing market remains in a state of imbalance, but, as I look at the data, I believe the frenetic pace of sales and price appreciation may start to soften in 2022.

This will likely be due to financing costs and affordability acting as headwinds to price growth. Mortgage rates have started to rise again, and I have forecasted them to reach 3.7% by fourth quarter. This alone will slow price growth as affordability in many areas declines.

One thing that remains unknown that could have a significant impact on the market is long-term work-from-home policies. Many businesses have not yet determined their plans for remote working, but once they do, potential home buyers who have been waiting to see how frequently they have to commute to work could immediately start their search. In addition to boosting sales, this could add inventory to the market as well.

All things considered, I am moving the needle just a notch toward buyers. However, as you can see, we are still in a market that heavily favors home sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Windermere Community • January 31, 2022

Windermere Real Estate Celebrates 50th Anniversary

by Carlene Sandstrom

A graphic showing WIndermere Real Estate's 50th anniversary.

In honor of our 50th anniversary, Windermere set a goal to reach $50 million in giving and officially announced our third generation of leadership during our 2022 Kick-Off event.

Seattle – On Wednesday, January 26, we hosted a virtual event for our agents, franchise owners, and staff, to kick off 2022 and celebrate our 50^th anniversary. More than 4,400 people attended the virtual event to hear from several speakers, including company founder, John Jacobi, Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and keynote speakers Matthew Ferrara and Candace Doby. Second-generation leaders, OB Jacobi, Jill Jacobi Wood, and Geoff Wood kicked off the event by reflecting on Windermere’s 50-year history and the pride that comes from still being a family-run organization. They also introduced Lucy Wood, daughter of Jill and Geoff, and the third generation to take on a leadership role within our company.

Founded in 1972 by John Jacobi, Windermere started with seven agents in a single office in Seattle, WA. Over the next two decades, Jacobi would grow Windermere into Seattle’s largest real estate brokerage and eventually the largest in the Pacific Northwest. But according to son, OB, his dad never had aspirations of becoming a large company. “My dad’s goal was to build a real estate office where the agents were respected on the same level as other business professionals, so he made it a priority to hire people who were above all else, professional,” said OB Jacobi, adding, “It was because of the quality of the people who joined Windermere that the company began to grow and thrive.”

Fifty years later, Windermere is the largest regional real estate company in the Western U.S. with over 6,500 agents and 300+ offices in 10 states. Last year we exceeded $43 billion in sales.

During the January 26 event, the second-generation leaders talked about how their dad set out to change the real estate industry. According to son, OB Jacobi, his dad didn’t believe in awards and felt the highest achievement an agent could earn is repeat and referral business from their clients. He also thought it was the responsibility of real estate agents to make their communities a better place to live, and in 1989, through the creation of the Windermere Foundation, pioneered a giving model that is now used by real estate companies around the country.

“My dad and his team came up with an idea that would make it really easy for agents to give back,” said Jill Jacobi Wood. “It was simple but sort of ingenious; every time an agent sold a home, a small donation from their commission would automatically be made to the Windermere Foundation. All that the agents had to do was sign up to donate and we handled the rest.”

Jacobi Wood added that the goal was to create a system that would allow Windermere to make a big difference without being a financial burden on any one person. In its first year (1989), the Windermere Foundation raised $90,000 for low-income and homeless families. In 2021, our network collectively raised over $2.5 million for a total of $46 million in donations. In honor of our 50^th anniversary, the Windermere network has been given a new challenge: to reach $50 million in donations by the end of 2022.

Windermere CEO, Geoff Wood, closed the 50^th anniversary event by saying, “Great companies don’t stagnate or stay the same. They are constantly evolving and looking for ways to improve, grow, and give back. Over the past 50 years we have done just that; here’s to 50 more.”

Market News • Matthew Gardner • Matthew Gardner Report • January 27, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022

by Carlene Sandstrom

This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022

1. Prices will continue to rise

There are some who believe that U.S. home prices will drop in the coming year given last year’s extremely rapid pace of growth, but I disagree. I don’t expect prices to fall; however, the pace of appreciation will slow significantly, rising by around 6% in 2022 as compared to 16% in 2021 (nationally). As such, agents need to be prepared to explain this new reality to their clients who have become very accustomed to prices spiraling upward. Those days are likely behind us—and it’s not a bad thing!

2. Spring will be busier than expected

The work-from-home paradigm is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and this could lead to increased buyer demand. Many companies have postponed announcing their long-term work-from-home policies due to the shifting COVID-19 variants, but I believe they will soon off er more clarity to their employees. Once this happens, it will likely lead to a new pool of home buyers who want to move to more affordable markets that are further away from their workplaces. I also expect to see more buyers who are driven by the need for a home that is better equipped for long-term remote working.

3. The rise of the suburbs

For a large number of people whose employers will allow them to work from home on an ongoing basis, remote working will not be an all-or-nothing proposition. It will be a blend of working from home and the office. I believe this will lead some buyers to look for homes in areas that are relatively proximate to their office, such as the suburbs or other ex-urban markets, but away from high-density neighborhoods.

4. New construction jumps

I anticipate the cost of building homes to come down a bit this year as inflation finally starts to taper, and this should provide additional stimulus for homebuilders to start construction of more units. Material costs spiked in 2021 with lumber prices alone adding about $36,000 to the price of a new home. This year, I’m hopeful that the supply chain bottlenecks will be fixed, which should cause prices to moderate and result in a drop in building material costs.

5. Zoning issues will be addressed

I’m optimistic that discussions around zoning policies will continue to pick up steam this year. This is because many U.S. legislators now understand that one of the main ways to deal with housing affordability is to increase the supply of land for residential construction. Despite concerns that increased density will lower home values, I believe existing homeowners will actually see their homes rise in value faster because of these policies.

6. Climate change will impact where buyers live

Now that natural disasters are increasing in frequency and climate risk data is starting to become more readily available, get ready for home buyers to require information from their agents about these risks and their associated costs. Specifically, buyers will want to know about an area’s flood and fire risks and how they might impact their insurance costs and/or their mortgage rate.

7. Urban markets will bounce back

While increased working from home can, and will, raise housing demand in areas farther away from city centers, it may not necessarily mean less demand for living in cities. In fact, some urban neighborhoods that were once only convenient to a subset of commuters may now be considered highly desirable and accessible to a larger set of potential home buyers. At the same time, this could be a problem for some distressed urban neighborhoods where proximity to employment centers may have been their best asset.

8. A resurgence in foreign investors

Foreign buyers have been sitting on the sidelines since the pandemic began, but they started to look again when the travel ban was lifted in November 2021. Recently, the rise of the Omicron variant has halted their buying activity, but if our borders remain open, I fully expect foreign buyer demand to rise significantly in 2022. Keep in mind, foreign buyers were still buying homes sight unseen even when they were unable to enter the country, and this will likely still be the case if borders are closed again.

9. First-time buyers will be an even bigger factor in 2022

Once remote working policies are clearer, we should see increased demand by first-time buyers who currently rent. In 2022, 4.8 million millennials will turn 30, which is the median age of first-time buyers in the U.S. An additional 9.4 million will turn 28 or 29 in the coming year. I believe this group is likely to contemplate buying sooner than expected if they can continue working from home in some capacity. Doing so would allow them to buy in outlying markets where homes are more affordable.

10. Forbearance will come to an end

Forbearance was a well-thought-out program to keep people in their homes during the height of the pandemic. Some predicted this would lead to a wave of foreclosures that would hurt the housing market, but this has not been the case. In fact, there are now fewer than 900,000 U.S. homeowners in forbearance, down from its May 2020 peak of almost 4.8 million, and this number will continue to shrink. That said, there will likely be a moderate increase in foreclosure activity in 2022, but most homeowners in this situation will sell in order to meet their financial obligations rather than have their home repossessed.

Buyers • January 23, 2022

7 Signs You’re Ready to Buy a Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A young man and a woman sit on the floor of their new home, surrounded by boxes and furniture.

Making the leap from renter to homeowner doesn’t happen overnight; it requires steady planning to put yourself in a good position to buy your first home. Prospective first-time home buyers can often feel like they’re waiting for a sign to indicate they’re ready to start making offers, when really, it’s a combination of factors. Here are seven signs that you’re ready to buy a home.

7 Signs You’re Ready to Buy a Home

1. You Know Which Homes You Can Afford

To know whether you’re ready to buy, you need to identify your price range. If you’re unhappy with your pre-approval, or need more money for your desired location, there are ways you can increase your buying power. Once you know which homes you can afford, you can work with your agent to find the right home and prepare an offer.

2. You Understand Your Local Market Conditions

The dynamics of the market in which you’re buying will play a role in determining whether you’re ready to buy. The local market conditions will dictate what kinds of offers you can expect to compete against, what tactics other buyers may employ, and whether the buyer or seller will have the leverage during negotiations. Therefore, it’s important to understand the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market so you and your agent can strategize accordingly.

3. You’re Comfortable with the Responsibilities of Being a Homeowner

Having a mortgage instead of paying rent isn’t the only difference between owning a home and renting. You’ll be responsible for maintaining the property, making repairs, and completing remodeling projects. That doesn’t always mean you can’t predict a future need. The best way to prepare for unexpected projects on any home is to get a home inspection before you buy so that you know every inch of the property and can start to save for larger expenses that might come down the road.

4. You Have Funds Available for Home Buying Costs

The costs of buying a home are more than just your down payment and monthly mortgage. Before you move into your new home, you’ll have to pay closing costs, moving expenses, and appraisal and inspection fees, to name a few. Property taxes can sometimes be part of the mortgage and depending on the time of year may need to be paid before you move in. Once you’re settled, homeowners insurance will enter the fold. If you can afford these costs, it’s a sign that you are ready to buy.

5. You’re Making Progress on Your Debt

Having zero debt is not a realistic expectation for every first-time home buyer. But, if you have a plan in place for paying off your outstanding debt and can show evidence of the progress you’re making, it will strengthen your buying credibility. Lenders will factor this into their assessment of your financial health during the pre-approval process.

6. You Have a Strategy for the Down Payment

It is true that lenders view a twenty percent down payment as favorable and won’t require you to purchase private mortgage insurance (PMI), but it’s not game over if you can’t make a lump sum payment of that size. With a lower-than-twenty percent down payment, you may incur higher interest and fees over the life of the loan, which could put a greater strain on your finances long-term than waiting until you can pay more principal down. Whichever route you choose, make sure you have a solid plan in place to repay your loan.

7. Your Life Aligns with Buying a Home

Buying a home means you’ll be putting down roots, so it’s important that you and your household are ready to establish yourselves in one area before you buy. There’s financial logic behind this line of thinking, as well; in general, the longer you stay in one home, the more equity you’ll build. Career and income stability also play a role in determining whether you’re ready to buy. Landing a job with long-term prospects may be just the thing you need to green-light your decision to buy your first home.

Windermere Community • January 10, 2022

Windermere Foundation 2021 Year in Review

by Carlene Sandstrom

A group of people wearing sanitary masks stand together in a food bank warehouse holding a donation check.

For the Windermere Foundation, 2021 was a year of milestones. Windermere owners, staff, and agents stepped up to support their communities in a variety of ways. Their collective efforts helped to raise over $2.5 million in 2021 for low-income and homeless families, bringing the Foundation’s grand total to over $45 million in donations since 1989.

Windermere Foundation 2021 Year in Review

Early 2021

The year got off to a quick start. Windermere offices showed an outpouring of support in their communities, raising nearly $500,000 by the end of March. The Windermere Lane County office in Eugene, Oregon was highly active, raising money for a host of local organizations dedicated to supporting local children who are in crisis due to neglect, abuse, poverty, or homelessness. The office also collected donations for Florence Food Share and Food for Lane County, two local non-profits working to solve hunger issues in the community. All in all, the Lane County office’s donations totaled over $10,000.

Community Service Day

In June, Windermere celebrated its 37^th annual Community Service Day, a tradition since 1984 in which our agents, staff, and franchise owners spend the day volunteering in their communities to complete neighborhood improvement projects. The Windermere Pinole and Diablo Realty offices joined together to support the Food Bank of Contra Costa & Solano by working in their warehouse to help bag produce. The offices were able to gather $2,850 in donations, which empowered The Food Bank to deliver 5,700 meals to the local community. The Park City office also made an impact with a local food health organization, EATS Park City, by donating $5,000 to help EATS in their mission to promote nutrition advocacy in the area.

These are just a couple examples of the impact last year’s Community Service Day had throughout the Windermere footprint. By the end of June, the Foundation surpassed $1 million in donations for 2021.

A group of people wearing sanitary masks stand together in a food bank warehouse holding a donation check.

Pictured: Scott Tuffnell, Denise Ramirez, Mike Rowland, Renee Rowland, Diane Cockrell, Mona Logasa, Dave Nardi, Ellen Osmundson, Jim Georgantes, Tina Rowland, Jacob Cardinale, Nicolars Ramirez, Luis Ramirez-Agudelo, George Gross, John Kula, Carol Nasser, Neil Zarchin (Food Drive Administrator – Food Bank of Contra Costa and Solano) – Image Source: Windermere Rowland Realty – California

Late 2021

Windermere agents, staff, and owners continued to give back to their communities through the summer and fall, eventually passing $1.5 million raised in 2021 by September’s end. Here are a few highlights from the final months of the year.

UW Certificate Scholarship Program

The UW Certificate Scholarship program is part of Windermere’s commitment to better serve and support students of color, especially Black and Hispanic students, who have been impacted by systemic racial inequities. Since it was introduced in 2019, the scholarship program has given a total of $41,000 to scholars to date.

Gina, a 2021 scholar, was able to complete the UW Certificate in Data Visualization with her scholarship from Windermere. Originally from Colombia, Gina moved to the U.S. ten years ago. She eventually found work as a nanny but was laid off in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gina knew she needed to find a stable career to help support her family and wanted to put her data visualization skills to work. Gina was hired as an Attendance Specialist with her local school district. “Now, you may wonder how an Attendance Specialist can contribute if she has data visualization skills,” she said. “I was a little skeptical at first, but as I started learning more about data, I started connecting the dots. I started collecting data on the reason why the students were not making it to classes and tracking down the kids that needed extra attention.” Gina began making weekly analyses and data visualizations for her team and was soon helping the district connect with students they hadn’t been able to reach for six months. “I can’t thank you enough for this great opportunity,” she said of the UW Certificate Scholarship. “I have helped my community, grown as a professional, and feel empowered as a mom and as a brown woman.”

The Windermere Foundation plans to expand the UW Certificate Scholarship program in the future to help more Black, Indigenous, or People of Color (BIPOC) adult learners.

A selfie of a young man and woman and their two kids outside.

2021 UW Certificate Scholar Gina (top left) with her family. Image Source: Gina / Jo Gubas—University of Washington

Windermere Sand Point / Lake Oswego West / Fort Collins /

The following Windermere offices didn’t let up in their community efforts during the final weeks of 2021. Windermere Sand Point looked no further than their local elementary school, Sand Point Elementary, when deciding how they could make an impact during the holiday season. The Sand Point office donated $3,000 to the school, which will help to provide low-income students and their families with clothing, shoes, food assistance, and payment aid for after school activities.

The Windermere Lake Oswego West office makes it a point to support Transition Projects annually in any way they can. Transition Projects engages with the local homeless population to support them on their journey out of homelessness while delivering lifesaving and life-changing assistance. In early December, the Lake Oswego West office donated $3,500 to Transition Projects.

Windermere Fort Collins has close ties to ChildSafe Colorado, a local organization that provides therapy for victims of childhood abuse. One of their agents had a personal experience with ChildSafe and couldn’t thank them enough for all they did for their family. The office has rallied to support the organization, as they are unable to provide their services without donations. The Northern Colorado office hosted a tailgate party fundraiser, collecting donations from agents and the public. All in all, they were able to donate $4,000 to ChildSafe in November.

A woman in the foreground holds a basket of donated items and a man in a football jersey behind her carries some items.

Pictured L to R: Suzanne Ekeler, Eric Thompson – Image Source: Natalie Parsons, Windermere Fort Collins

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.

Sellers • December 27, 2021

7 Mistakes to Avoid When Selling a Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A real estate agent sits at a desk with two people selling their home. All three examine paperwork.

Mistakes in the selling process can throw your plans off course, causing costly delays. But by knowing what mistakes to avoid ahead of time, you can save yourself the headache and the expense. Steer clear of these common mistakes as you work alongside your agent towards a successful sale.

7 Mistakes to Avoid When Selling a Home

1. Skipping Repairs

Neglecting to make repairs to your home before you sell not only makes it less appealing to buyers, but it can also open you up to additional costs that result from the buyer’s inspection. If you fail to disclose any repairs that need to be made, it could halt the closing process or cause the deal to fall through. Consider conducting a pre-listing inspection to make sure everything is out in the open before you sell.

2. Not Working with an Agent

Listing agents help sellers accurately price their home, coordinate showings and open houses, and negotiate with buyers’ agents to get the best deal for their client. Choosing not to work with an agent can open you up to several risks. Selling a home is an intricate, complicated process that needs the guiding hand of a professional, so it’s no wonder that a vast majority of sellers choose to work with an agent.

3. Incorrectly Pricing Your Home

The key to selling your home quickly is to find the right buyers. To find the right buyers, your home must be correctly priced. Agents use a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)—a thorough, data-backed examination of your home and how it compares to other listings in your area—to accurately price your home. Without an agent’s CMA, it’s easy for your home to be listed at the wrong price, leading to the following consequences.

- Overpricing Your Home: Overpricing your home will attract the wrong buyers because you will force your home into competition with other listings that are fundamentally superior or have more to offer. When comparing other homes to yours, buyers will focus on the discrepancies and the features your home lacks. Overpricing will often cause homes to sit on the market for extended periods of time and become less appealing to buyers.
- Underpricing Your Home: Under competitive market conditions, intentionally underpricing a home is a common strategy to attract buyer attention with the goal of starting a bidding war to drive the price of the home up. However, several things must go correctly for this to happen. In all other cases, underpricing your home reflects a lack of knowledge about where its market value fits into the fabric of current local market conditions and can leave you, the seller, unsatisfied with the price your home ultimately fetches.

4. Letting Your Emotions Take Over

Selling your home is an act of learning how to let it go. Once you know you’re ready to sell, you’ll need to be able to look at it with an objective eye. This will allow you to approach conversations with your agent from a neutral standpoint and work towards what is best for the sale of the home. If you’re too emotionally attached, you may find that you have trouble agreeing with your agent when it comes to negotiations. Overall, emotions can cloud your judgement and make the successful completion of the transaction more complex. If you’re struggling with tabling your emotions, talk to your agent for guidance.

5. Not Prioritizing Photography

One of the hard truths for selling a home is that first impressions matter. The vast majority of buyers are searching online and taking virtual tours of homes they’re interested in. As such, it’s worth the time and money to hire a high-quality photographer. The right photography can make all the difference in the minds of buyers. An aesthetically pleasing home will attract more eyes, and any edge you can give your home over competing listings may be just the ticket to getting it sold.

6. Selling Before You’re Ready

It may be tempting to want to get your house on the market quickly to take advantage of local market conditions, but if the time isn’t right for you, rushing into the market could cause more trouble than it’s worth. Knowing when to sell your home is a mixture of being financially prepared, finding the right agent, and understanding how your home fits into the current local market landscape.

7. Refusing to Negotiate

Approaching buyers’ offers with a cold shoulder can lead to missed opportunities. Before the offers start to come in, it’s important to work closely with your agent to understand your expectations and which terms and contingencies you’re willing to negotiate. That way, you can quickly identify the right offer when it comes along. If you’re unwilling to negotiate, it can drive buyers away and leave potential deals on the table.

Design • December 13, 2021

How to Create a Gallery Wall at Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A living room with a gallery wall containing several framed posters, paintings, and other works of art.

You don’t have to be an accomplished art collector, historian, or aficionado to curate and hang a well-crafted, visually appealing gallery at home. Hanging a gallery wall will give your collection of photos, drawings, and other works of art a place to be displayed. It can also give life to bland stretches of empty wall space, helping to tie together the spaces in your home. So, before you touch nail to drywall, keep the following information in mind to hang the perfect gallery wall for your home.

How to Create a Gallery Wall at Home

The first step to hanging a gallery wall at home is to assemble your artwork. Once you’ve gathered the artwork you intend to hang, take measurements of each piece to determine their framing dimensions. You’ll have an easier time finding frames for the pieces in your art collection with common dimensions—such as 5” x 7” or 8” x 10.” For artwork with uncommon dimensions, you can either shop around for custom framing or simply buy a larger frame with the appropriate matting to fit the artwork. Applying a mat can also give your pieces an elevated, professional look. Once you’ve taken your measurements, it’s time to shop for supplies.

Gather your gallery wall essentials first: a hammer, nails, hooks, and picture hangers. If you have a large piece of artwork in your collection, be sure to find a hanging apparatus certified to hold its weight. You may find it helpful to use paper and tape to “sketch” your desired layout on the wall before you start hanging, and while you’re hanging, use a level or framing square to determine when your artwork is level. During installation, start in the center of your wall space and work towards the edges. It may also be helpful to hang larger works first and work your way down in size. This way, if you need to make adjustments, you can easily adjust your smaller artworks around a focal point.

Gallery Walls Throughout Your Home

Living Room Gallery Wall

A living room with a gallery wall behind a couch.

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: Photographee.eu

A living room gallery wall may be just the remedy for that large, blank space behind your couch. Because living room walls tend to be one of the larger surface areas in a home, it is a fitting place for large pieces of art and intricate collages of frames. Consider how the proportions of your gallery wall can create balance in your living room.

Home Office Gallery Wall

A home office with a gallery wall above the desk.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: CreativaStudio

With the recent increase in remote work, home offices are more important now than ever before. Keeping your home office fresh and lively is the key to staying productive and inspired while working from home, and a gallery wall can help to do exactly that. Experiment with different combinations of artwork, photos of friends and family, and other cherished collectibles.

Bedroom Gallery Wall

A bedroom with a gallery wall above the headboard of the bed.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: KatarzynaBialasiewicz

Hanging a gallery wall on the space above your headboard or on an adjacent wall is a quick and easy way to upgrade your bedroom. Fill the space with inspiring paintings, memorable photos, motivational quotes, or whatever artwork best compliments the color and décor throughout the room.

These are just a few of the ways you can incorporate a gallery wall into your home. Hanging a gallery wall in a children’s playroom can be a fun way to highlight their artwork. Curating a cascading gallery along a staircase between floors will create a flow between the levels in your home. The options are endless.