Q4 2021 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Carlene Sandstrom

Q4 2021 Western Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Just when we thought COVID was starting to pull back, the Omicron variant made its presence known. It is still too early to suggest that this has affected the region’s economic recovery—we won’t likely know for certain until we get more job data. I remain hopeful that this latest spike in infections will not have too much of an impact, but only time will tell. To date, the region has recovered all but 51,000 of the 297,000 jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. Some of the region’s smaller counties, including Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam, have seen a full job recovery. The most recent data (November) shows the regional unemployment rate at a very respectable 3.3%, which is below the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. The lowest unemployment rates were in King and San Juan Counties, where 2.9% of the labor force was out of work. The highest rate was in Grays Harbor County, which registered 5.1%. I still expect to see a full job recovery by this summer. However, there is a growing labor shortage holding the area back. Hopefully, this will change, but some industry sectors—especially hospitality—continue to find it hard to attract workers.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of the year, 22,161 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2020 and down 18.8% from the third quarter.

❱ The reason there were lower year-over-year sales is simply because the number of homes for sale was down more than 30%. The drop between third and fourth quarters is likely due to seasonality changes in the market.

❱ Although home sales were lower in most markets, there was a significant uptick in Grays Harbor and Thurston counties. The number of homes sold dropped across the board compared to the third quarter.

❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed sales outpacing listings by a factor of 5.2. The market is supply starved and unfortunately, it’s unlikely enough homes will be listed this spring to satisfy demand.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Home prices rose 15.1% compared to a year ago, with an average sale price of $711,008. This was 2.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2021.

❱ When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan and Jefferson counties. All but two markets saw prices rise more than 10% from a year ago.

❱ Relative to the third quarter, every county except Island (-8.6%), Mason (-5.2%), Lewis (-2.9%), King (-2.1%), Cowlitz (-1.7%), and Kitsap (-0.9%) saw sale prices rise.

❱ Mortgage rates rose more than .2% between the third and fourth quarters, which may have impacted prices. Affordability constraints continue to grow, which is also likely to have played a part in slowing gains.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ It took an average of 23 days for homes to sell in the final quarter of 2021. This was 8 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 6 more days than in the third quarter of last year.

❱ Snohomish, Thurston, King, and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of between 13 and 16 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 33 fewer days for a seller to find a buyer.

❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. Every county except Whatcom saw market time rise compared to the third quarter.

❱ Longer days on market might suggest that things are starting to slow, but I don’t actually think this is the case. I believe buyers are being a little more selective before making offers, and many may be waiting in the hope that supply levels will improve in the spring.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Western Washington during the fourth quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The housing market remains in a state of imbalance, but, as I look at the data, I believe the frenetic pace of sales and price appreciation may start to soften in 2022.

This will likely be due to financing costs and affordability acting as headwinds to price growth. Mortgage rates have started to rise again, and I have forecasted them to reach 3.7% by fourth quarter. This alone will slow price growth as affordability in many areas declines.

One thing that remains unknown that could have a significant impact on the market is long-term work-from-home policies. Many businesses have not yet determined their plans for remote working, but once they do, potential home buyers who have been waiting to see how frequently they have to commute to work could immediately start their search. In addition to boosting sales, this could add inventory to the market as well.

All things considered, I am moving the needle just a notch toward buyers. However, as you can see, we are still in a market that heavily favors home sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Windermere Community • January 31, 2022

Windermere Real Estate Celebrates 50th Anniversary

by Carlene Sandstrom

A graphic showing WIndermere Real Estate's 50th anniversary.

In honor of our 50th anniversary, Windermere set a goal to reach $50 million in giving and officially announced our third generation of leadership during our 2022 Kick-Off event.

Seattle – On Wednesday, January 26, we hosted a virtual event for our agents, franchise owners, and staff, to kick off 2022 and celebrate our 50^th anniversary. More than 4,400 people attended the virtual event to hear from several speakers, including company founder, John Jacobi, Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and keynote speakers Matthew Ferrara and Candace Doby. Second-generation leaders, OB Jacobi, Jill Jacobi Wood, and Geoff Wood kicked off the event by reflecting on Windermere’s 50-year history and the pride that comes from still being a family-run organization. They also introduced Lucy Wood, daughter of Jill and Geoff, and the third generation to take on a leadership role within our company.

Founded in 1972 by John Jacobi, Windermere started with seven agents in a single office in Seattle, WA. Over the next two decades, Jacobi would grow Windermere into Seattle’s largest real estate brokerage and eventually the largest in the Pacific Northwest. But according to son, OB, his dad never had aspirations of becoming a large company. “My dad’s goal was to build a real estate office where the agents were respected on the same level as other business professionals, so he made it a priority to hire people who were above all else, professional,” said OB Jacobi, adding, “It was because of the quality of the people who joined Windermere that the company began to grow and thrive.”

Fifty years later, Windermere is the largest regional real estate company in the Western U.S. with over 6,500 agents and 300+ offices in 10 states. Last year we exceeded $43 billion in sales.

During the January 26 event, the second-generation leaders talked about how their dad set out to change the real estate industry. According to son, OB Jacobi, his dad didn’t believe in awards and felt the highest achievement an agent could earn is repeat and referral business from their clients. He also thought it was the responsibility of real estate agents to make their communities a better place to live, and in 1989, through the creation of the Windermere Foundation, pioneered a giving model that is now used by real estate companies around the country.

“My dad and his team came up with an idea that would make it really easy for agents to give back,” said Jill Jacobi Wood. “It was simple but sort of ingenious; every time an agent sold a home, a small donation from their commission would automatically be made to the Windermere Foundation. All that the agents had to do was sign up to donate and we handled the rest.”

Jacobi Wood added that the goal was to create a system that would allow Windermere to make a big difference without being a financial burden on any one person. In its first year (1989), the Windermere Foundation raised $90,000 for low-income and homeless families. In 2021, our network collectively raised over $2.5 million for a total of $46 million in donations. In honor of our 50^th anniversary, the Windermere network has been given a new challenge: to reach $50 million in donations by the end of 2022.

Windermere CEO, Geoff Wood, closed the 50^th anniversary event by saying, “Great companies don’t stagnate or stay the same. They are constantly evolving and looking for ways to improve, grow, and give back. Over the past 50 years we have done just that; here’s to 50 more.”

Market News • Matthew Gardner • Matthew Gardner Report • January 27, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022

by Carlene Sandstrom

This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022

1. Prices will continue to rise

There are some who believe that U.S. home prices will drop in the coming year given last year’s extremely rapid pace of growth, but I disagree. I don’t expect prices to fall; however, the pace of appreciation will slow significantly, rising by around 6% in 2022 as compared to 16% in 2021 (nationally). As such, agents need to be prepared to explain this new reality to their clients who have become very accustomed to prices spiraling upward. Those days are likely behind us—and it’s not a bad thing!

2. Spring will be busier than expected

The work-from-home paradigm is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and this could lead to increased buyer demand. Many companies have postponed announcing their long-term work-from-home policies due to the shifting COVID-19 variants, but I believe they will soon off er more clarity to their employees. Once this happens, it will likely lead to a new pool of home buyers who want to move to more affordable markets that are further away from their workplaces. I also expect to see more buyers who are driven by the need for a home that is better equipped for long-term remote working.

3. The rise of the suburbs

For a large number of people whose employers will allow them to work from home on an ongoing basis, remote working will not be an all-or-nothing proposition. It will be a blend of working from home and the office. I believe this will lead some buyers to look for homes in areas that are relatively proximate to their office, such as the suburbs or other ex-urban markets, but away from high-density neighborhoods.

4. New construction jumps

I anticipate the cost of building homes to come down a bit this year as inflation finally starts to taper, and this should provide additional stimulus for homebuilders to start construction of more units. Material costs spiked in 2021 with lumber prices alone adding about $36,000 to the price of a new home. This year, I’m hopeful that the supply chain bottlenecks will be fixed, which should cause prices to moderate and result in a drop in building material costs.

5. Zoning issues will be addressed

I’m optimistic that discussions around zoning policies will continue to pick up steam this year. This is because many U.S. legislators now understand that one of the main ways to deal with housing affordability is to increase the supply of land for residential construction. Despite concerns that increased density will lower home values, I believe existing homeowners will actually see their homes rise in value faster because of these policies.

6. Climate change will impact where buyers live

Now that natural disasters are increasing in frequency and climate risk data is starting to become more readily available, get ready for home buyers to require information from their agents about these risks and their associated costs. Specifically, buyers will want to know about an area’s flood and fire risks and how they might impact their insurance costs and/or their mortgage rate.

7. Urban markets will bounce back

While increased working from home can, and will, raise housing demand in areas farther away from city centers, it may not necessarily mean less demand for living in cities. In fact, some urban neighborhoods that were once only convenient to a subset of commuters may now be considered highly desirable and accessible to a larger set of potential home buyers. At the same time, this could be a problem for some distressed urban neighborhoods where proximity to employment centers may have been their best asset.

8. A resurgence in foreign investors

Foreign buyers have been sitting on the sidelines since the pandemic began, but they started to look again when the travel ban was lifted in November 2021. Recently, the rise of the Omicron variant has halted their buying activity, but if our borders remain open, I fully expect foreign buyer demand to rise significantly in 2022. Keep in mind, foreign buyers were still buying homes sight unseen even when they were unable to enter the country, and this will likely still be the case if borders are closed again.

9. First-time buyers will be an even bigger factor in 2022

Once remote working policies are clearer, we should see increased demand by first-time buyers who currently rent. In 2022, 4.8 million millennials will turn 30, which is the median age of first-time buyers in the U.S. An additional 9.4 million will turn 28 or 29 in the coming year. I believe this group is likely to contemplate buying sooner than expected if they can continue working from home in some capacity. Doing so would allow them to buy in outlying markets where homes are more affordable.

10. Forbearance will come to an end

Forbearance was a well-thought-out program to keep people in their homes during the height of the pandemic. Some predicted this would lead to a wave of foreclosures that would hurt the housing market, but this has not been the case. In fact, there are now fewer than 900,000 U.S. homeowners in forbearance, down from its May 2020 peak of almost 4.8 million, and this number will continue to shrink. That said, there will likely be a moderate increase in foreclosure activity in 2022, but most homeowners in this situation will sell in order to meet their financial obligations rather than have their home repossessed.

Buyers • January 23, 2022

7 Signs You’re Ready to Buy a Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A young man and a woman sit on the floor of their new home, surrounded by boxes and furniture.

Making the leap from renter to homeowner doesn’t happen overnight; it requires steady planning to put yourself in a good position to buy your first home. Prospective first-time home buyers can often feel like they’re waiting for a sign to indicate they’re ready to start making offers, when really, it’s a combination of factors. Here are seven signs that you’re ready to buy a home.

7 Signs You’re Ready to Buy a Home

1. You Know Which Homes You Can Afford

To know whether you’re ready to buy, you need to identify your price range. If you’re unhappy with your pre-approval, or need more money for your desired location, there are ways you can increase your buying power. Once you know which homes you can afford, you can work with your agent to find the right home and prepare an offer.

2. You Understand Your Local Market Conditions

The dynamics of the market in which you’re buying will play a role in determining whether you’re ready to buy. The local market conditions will dictate what kinds of offers you can expect to compete against, what tactics other buyers may employ, and whether the buyer or seller will have the leverage during negotiations. Therefore, it’s important to understand the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market so you and your agent can strategize accordingly.

3. You’re Comfortable with the Responsibilities of Being a Homeowner

Having a mortgage instead of paying rent isn’t the only difference between owning a home and renting. You’ll be responsible for maintaining the property, making repairs, and completing remodeling projects. That doesn’t always mean you can’t predict a future need. The best way to prepare for unexpected projects on any home is to get a home inspection before you buy so that you know every inch of the property and can start to save for larger expenses that might come down the road.

4. You Have Funds Available for Home Buying Costs

The costs of buying a home are more than just your down payment and monthly mortgage. Before you move into your new home, you’ll have to pay closing costs, moving expenses, and appraisal and inspection fees, to name a few. Property taxes can sometimes be part of the mortgage and depending on the time of year may need to be paid before you move in. Once you’re settled, homeowners insurance will enter the fold. If you can afford these costs, it’s a sign that you are ready to buy.

5. You’re Making Progress on Your Debt

Having zero debt is not a realistic expectation for every first-time home buyer. But, if you have a plan in place for paying off your outstanding debt and can show evidence of the progress you’re making, it will strengthen your buying credibility. Lenders will factor this into their assessment of your financial health during the pre-approval process.

6. You Have a Strategy for the Down Payment

It is true that lenders view a twenty percent down payment as favorable and won’t require you to purchase private mortgage insurance (PMI), but it’s not game over if you can’t make a lump sum payment of that size. With a lower-than-twenty percent down payment, you may incur higher interest and fees over the life of the loan, which could put a greater strain on your finances long-term than waiting until you can pay more principal down. Whichever route you choose, make sure you have a solid plan in place to repay your loan.

7. Your Life Aligns with Buying a Home

Buying a home means you’ll be putting down roots, so it’s important that you and your household are ready to establish yourselves in one area before you buy. There’s financial logic behind this line of thinking, as well; in general, the longer you stay in one home, the more equity you’ll build. Career and income stability also play a role in determining whether you’re ready to buy. Landing a job with long-term prospects may be just the thing you need to green-light your decision to buy your first home.

Windermere Community • January 10, 2022

Windermere Foundation 2021 Year in Review

by Carlene Sandstrom

A group of people wearing sanitary masks stand together in a food bank warehouse holding a donation check.

For the Windermere Foundation, 2021 was a year of milestones. Windermere owners, staff, and agents stepped up to support their communities in a variety of ways. Their collective efforts helped to raise over $2.5 million in 2021 for low-income and homeless families, bringing the Foundation’s grand total to over $45 million in donations since 1989.

Windermere Foundation 2021 Year in Review

Early 2021

The year got off to a quick start. Windermere offices showed an outpouring of support in their communities, raising nearly $500,000 by the end of March. The Windermere Lane County office in Eugene, Oregon was highly active, raising money for a host of local organizations dedicated to supporting local children who are in crisis due to neglect, abuse, poverty, or homelessness. The office also collected donations for Florence Food Share and Food for Lane County, two local non-profits working to solve hunger issues in the community. All in all, the Lane County office’s donations totaled over $10,000.

Community Service Day

In June, Windermere celebrated its 37^th annual Community Service Day, a tradition since 1984 in which our agents, staff, and franchise owners spend the day volunteering in their communities to complete neighborhood improvement projects. The Windermere Pinole and Diablo Realty offices joined together to support the Food Bank of Contra Costa & Solano by working in their warehouse to help bag produce. The offices were able to gather $2,850 in donations, which empowered The Food Bank to deliver 5,700 meals to the local community. The Park City office also made an impact with a local food health organization, EATS Park City, by donating $5,000 to help EATS in their mission to promote nutrition advocacy in the area.

These are just a couple examples of the impact last year’s Community Service Day had throughout the Windermere footprint. By the end of June, the Foundation surpassed $1 million in donations for 2021.

A group of people wearing sanitary masks stand together in a food bank warehouse holding a donation check.

Pictured: Scott Tuffnell, Denise Ramirez, Mike Rowland, Renee Rowland, Diane Cockrell, Mona Logasa, Dave Nardi, Ellen Osmundson, Jim Georgantes, Tina Rowland, Jacob Cardinale, Nicolars Ramirez, Luis Ramirez-Agudelo, George Gross, John Kula, Carol Nasser, Neil Zarchin (Food Drive Administrator – Food Bank of Contra Costa and Solano) – Image Source: Windermere Rowland Realty – California

Late 2021

Windermere agents, staff, and owners continued to give back to their communities through the summer and fall, eventually passing $1.5 million raised in 2021 by September’s end. Here are a few highlights from the final months of the year.

UW Certificate Scholarship Program

The UW Certificate Scholarship program is part of Windermere’s commitment to better serve and support students of color, especially Black and Hispanic students, who have been impacted by systemic racial inequities. Since it was introduced in 2019, the scholarship program has given a total of $41,000 to scholars to date.

Gina, a 2021 scholar, was able to complete the UW Certificate in Data Visualization with her scholarship from Windermere. Originally from Colombia, Gina moved to the U.S. ten years ago. She eventually found work as a nanny but was laid off in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gina knew she needed to find a stable career to help support her family and wanted to put her data visualization skills to work. Gina was hired as an Attendance Specialist with her local school district. “Now, you may wonder how an Attendance Specialist can contribute if she has data visualization skills,” she said. “I was a little skeptical at first, but as I started learning more about data, I started connecting the dots. I started collecting data on the reason why the students were not making it to classes and tracking down the kids that needed extra attention.” Gina began making weekly analyses and data visualizations for her team and was soon helping the district connect with students they hadn’t been able to reach for six months. “I can’t thank you enough for this great opportunity,” she said of the UW Certificate Scholarship. “I have helped my community, grown as a professional, and feel empowered as a mom and as a brown woman.”

The Windermere Foundation plans to expand the UW Certificate Scholarship program in the future to help more Black, Indigenous, or People of Color (BIPOC) adult learners.

A selfie of a young man and woman and their two kids outside.

2021 UW Certificate Scholar Gina (top left) with her family. Image Source: Gina / Jo Gubas—University of Washington

Windermere Sand Point / Lake Oswego West / Fort Collins /

The following Windermere offices didn’t let up in their community efforts during the final weeks of 2021. Windermere Sand Point looked no further than their local elementary school, Sand Point Elementary, when deciding how they could make an impact during the holiday season. The Sand Point office donated $3,000 to the school, which will help to provide low-income students and their families with clothing, shoes, food assistance, and payment aid for after school activities.

The Windermere Lake Oswego West office makes it a point to support Transition Projects annually in any way they can. Transition Projects engages with the local homeless population to support them on their journey out of homelessness while delivering lifesaving and life-changing assistance. In early December, the Lake Oswego West office donated $3,500 to Transition Projects.

Windermere Fort Collins has close ties to ChildSafe Colorado, a local organization that provides therapy for victims of childhood abuse. One of their agents had a personal experience with ChildSafe and couldn’t thank them enough for all they did for their family. The office has rallied to support the organization, as they are unable to provide their services without donations. The Northern Colorado office hosted a tailgate party fundraiser, collecting donations from agents and the public. All in all, they were able to donate $4,000 to ChildSafe in November.

A woman in the foreground holds a basket of donated items and a man in a football jersey behind her carries some items.

Pictured L to R: Suzanne Ekeler, Eric Thompson – Image Source: Natalie Parsons, Windermere Fort Collins

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.

Sellers • December 27, 2021

7 Mistakes to Avoid When Selling a Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A real estate agent sits at a desk with two people selling their home. All three examine paperwork.

Mistakes in the selling process can throw your plans off course, causing costly delays. But by knowing what mistakes to avoid ahead of time, you can save yourself the headache and the expense. Steer clear of these common mistakes as you work alongside your agent towards a successful sale.

7 Mistakes to Avoid When Selling a Home

1. Skipping Repairs

Neglecting to make repairs to your home before you sell not only makes it less appealing to buyers, but it can also open you up to additional costs that result from the buyer’s inspection. If you fail to disclose any repairs that need to be made, it could halt the closing process or cause the deal to fall through. Consider conducting a pre-listing inspection to make sure everything is out in the open before you sell.

2. Not Working with an Agent

Listing agents help sellers accurately price their home, coordinate showings and open houses, and negotiate with buyers’ agents to get the best deal for their client. Choosing not to work with an agent can open you up to several risks. Selling a home is an intricate, complicated process that needs the guiding hand of a professional, so it’s no wonder that a vast majority of sellers choose to work with an agent.

3. Incorrectly Pricing Your Home

The key to selling your home quickly is to find the right buyers. To find the right buyers, your home must be correctly priced. Agents use a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)—a thorough, data-backed examination of your home and how it compares to other listings in your area—to accurately price your home. Without an agent’s CMA, it’s easy for your home to be listed at the wrong price, leading to the following consequences.

- Overpricing Your Home: Overpricing your home will attract the wrong buyers because you will force your home into competition with other listings that are fundamentally superior or have more to offer. When comparing other homes to yours, buyers will focus on the discrepancies and the features your home lacks. Overpricing will often cause homes to sit on the market for extended periods of time and become less appealing to buyers.
- Underpricing Your Home: Under competitive market conditions, intentionally underpricing a home is a common strategy to attract buyer attention with the goal of starting a bidding war to drive the price of the home up. However, several things must go correctly for this to happen. In all other cases, underpricing your home reflects a lack of knowledge about where its market value fits into the fabric of current local market conditions and can leave you, the seller, unsatisfied with the price your home ultimately fetches.

4. Letting Your Emotions Take Over

Selling your home is an act of learning how to let it go. Once you know you’re ready to sell, you’ll need to be able to look at it with an objective eye. This will allow you to approach conversations with your agent from a neutral standpoint and work towards what is best for the sale of the home. If you’re too emotionally attached, you may find that you have trouble agreeing with your agent when it comes to negotiations. Overall, emotions can cloud your judgement and make the successful completion of the transaction more complex. If you’re struggling with tabling your emotions, talk to your agent for guidance.

5. Not Prioritizing Photography

One of the hard truths for selling a home is that first impressions matter. The vast majority of buyers are searching online and taking virtual tours of homes they’re interested in. As such, it’s worth the time and money to hire a high-quality photographer. The right photography can make all the difference in the minds of buyers. An aesthetically pleasing home will attract more eyes, and any edge you can give your home over competing listings may be just the ticket to getting it sold.

6. Selling Before You’re Ready

It may be tempting to want to get your house on the market quickly to take advantage of local market conditions, but if the time isn’t right for you, rushing into the market could cause more trouble than it’s worth. Knowing when to sell your home is a mixture of being financially prepared, finding the right agent, and understanding how your home fits into the current local market landscape.

7. Refusing to Negotiate

Approaching buyers’ offers with a cold shoulder can lead to missed opportunities. Before the offers start to come in, it’s important to work closely with your agent to understand your expectations and which terms and contingencies you’re willing to negotiate. That way, you can quickly identify the right offer when it comes along. If you’re unwilling to negotiate, it can drive buyers away and leave potential deals on the table.

Design • December 13, 2021

How to Create a Gallery Wall at Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A living room with a gallery wall containing several framed posters, paintings, and other works of art.

You don’t have to be an accomplished art collector, historian, or aficionado to curate and hang a well-crafted, visually appealing gallery at home. Hanging a gallery wall will give your collection of photos, drawings, and other works of art a place to be displayed. It can also give life to bland stretches of empty wall space, helping to tie together the spaces in your home. So, before you touch nail to drywall, keep the following information in mind to hang the perfect gallery wall for your home.

How to Create a Gallery Wall at Home

The first step to hanging a gallery wall at home is to assemble your artwork. Once you’ve gathered the artwork you intend to hang, take measurements of each piece to determine their framing dimensions. You’ll have an easier time finding frames for the pieces in your art collection with common dimensions—such as 5” x 7” or 8” x 10.” For artwork with uncommon dimensions, you can either shop around for custom framing or simply buy a larger frame with the appropriate matting to fit the artwork. Applying a mat can also give your pieces an elevated, professional look. Once you’ve taken your measurements, it’s time to shop for supplies.

Gather your gallery wall essentials first: a hammer, nails, hooks, and picture hangers. If you have a large piece of artwork in your collection, be sure to find a hanging apparatus certified to hold its weight. You may find it helpful to use paper and tape to “sketch” your desired layout on the wall before you start hanging, and while you’re hanging, use a level or framing square to determine when your artwork is level. During installation, start in the center of your wall space and work towards the edges. It may also be helpful to hang larger works first and work your way down in size. This way, if you need to make adjustments, you can easily adjust your smaller artworks around a focal point.

Gallery Walls Throughout Your Home

Living Room Gallery Wall

A living room with a gallery wall behind a couch.

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: Photographee.eu

A living room gallery wall may be just the remedy for that large, blank space behind your couch. Because living room walls tend to be one of the larger surface areas in a home, it is a fitting place for large pieces of art and intricate collages of frames. Consider how the proportions of your gallery wall can create balance in your living room.

Home Office Gallery Wall

A home office with a gallery wall above the desk.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: CreativaStudio

With the recent increase in remote work, home offices are more important now than ever before. Keeping your home office fresh and lively is the key to staying productive and inspired while working from home, and a gallery wall can help to do exactly that. Experiment with different combinations of artwork, photos of friends and family, and other cherished collectibles.

Bedroom Gallery Wall

A bedroom with a gallery wall above the headboard of the bed.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: KatarzynaBialasiewicz

Hanging a gallery wall on the space above your headboard or on an adjacent wall is a quick and easy way to upgrade your bedroom. Fill the space with inspiring paintings, memorable photos, motivational quotes, or whatever artwork best compliments the color and décor throughout the room.

These are just a few of the ways you can incorporate a gallery wall into your home. Hanging a gallery wall in a children’s playroom can be a fun way to highlight their artwork. Curating a cascading gallery along a staircase between floors will create a flow between the levels in your home. The options are endless.

Buyers • December 5, 2021

10 Costs Associated with Buying a Home

by Carlene Sandstrom

A young man sits at his desk and calculates the cost of buying a home.

Some expenses that come with buying a home are easier to account for than others. Knowing the costs associated with buying a home will not only help you budget accordingly but will also pinpoint which homes are truly affordable for you. In no particular order, here are ten costs you can expect to encounter when buying a home.

10 Costs Associated with Buying a Home

1. Down payment

The down payment is a lump sum paid by the buyer upfront. The exact amount required varies by lender and loan type, but in general, a substantial down payment will help decrease your monthly payments. Making a traditional twenty percent down payment means less risk for your lender, opening the door for lower interest rates and avoiding the need for private mortgage insurance (PMI). But if you can’t come up with that much, it’s not a dead end. PMI and its various alternatives can help close the gap and provide a path to homeownership.

2. Homeowners insurance

Once you’ve purchased a home, there’s no time to delay in protecting it. A standard homeowners insurance policy typically covers your home, your belongings, injury or property damage to others, and any living expenses in the event of an insured disaster that renders your home unlivable. Homeowners insurance policies provide coverage for the owner(s) living on the property. If you plan on renting out your home or dwellings on your property, you’ll need to purchase separate landlord insurance to cover your tenants.

3. Mortgage payment

There’s a give and take with mortgage payments—the more you pay down your home, the more equity you build. Unless you’re making an all-cash offer, you can expect to budget for mortgage payments. Use the general rule that your house payments should be roughly 25% of your take-home pay. Use an online mortgage calculator to get an idea of what you can afford.

4. Closing costs

Before your home purchase is a done deal, you can expect to pay closing costs, which usually total somewhere between 2-5% of the total mortgage value. The terms of the purchase agreement will dictate how you and the seller will split the closing costs. They include but are not limited to underwriting fees, credit check fees, title insurance and title search, escrow fees, and more. These expenses can add up, so be sure you’re prepared when it comes time for closing day.

5. HOA fees

For those who are buying in developments governed by a homeowner’s association or are purchasing a townhouse or condo, you’ll likely have to pay HOA fees on top of your monthly mortgage payment. HOA fees, usually paid monthly, go towards maintaining the shared spaces, property, and amenities within the community. Before moving forward with your purchase, determine if the property is under the governance of a homeowner’s association and the cost of the fees.

6. Property taxes

Your annual property tax is calculated by multiplying the assessed value of your home by the tax rate. This figure is broken down into monthly installments and added on top of your mortgage payment. Because property taxes are based on the assessed value of your home, they are subject to change. If the assessed value of your home increases over time, so will your property taxes.

7. Repairs and remodeling

Unless you’re buying new construction, your new home will likely need repairs. Even after having completed a thorough home inspection, underestimating repairs expenses can be a costly mistake. Certain repairs may require the help of a professional, and while hiring them will ensure your home is in good hands, their services come with a price. If you’re buying with the intention of remodeling, remember to leave room for the other costs on this list before breaking ground on any projects.

8. Appraisal and inspection fees

Not only will a home inspection allow you to negotiate repairs and concessions with the seller, but it will also help you budget for the home repairs you’ll need to make in the future. An appraisal, carried out by a licensed third party, will determine your home’s appraised value—or in other words, how much the bank thinks your home is worth. Both fees can cost upwards of a few hundred dollars each.

9. Utilities

One of the first steps you’ll take in your new home is setting up your utilities. In general, the larger the property the more you can expect to pay in utilities. Electricity, gas, water, sewer, and trash and recycling pickup are just a few of the utilities you can expect to arrange for your new home. Get an early start on this list to avoid a situation where you need heat or running water, only to realize they haven’t been set up yet.

10. Moving costs

Often buyers can be so taken with the prospect of living in their new home that they forget to account for the costs it will take to move there. Set a timeline, take inventory of the items in your home, and stay organized throughout the process to make the moving process as efficient as possible. For more moving tips, read our guide on how to Make Your Move.

To understand more about how to navigate the buying process, give me a call.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • November 28, 2021

11/15/2021 Housing and Economic Update from Matthew Gardner

by Carlene Sandstrom

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Hello there! I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew.

Before I get started, I wanted to let you know that this will be the final episode of Monday with Matthew for 2021 as I’m going to be taking Christmas off. So it’s time to offer you my forecasts for the U.S. economy and the country’s housing market in 2022.

Although many people – including myself – had hoped that COVID-19 would have become a somewhat distant memory by now, and that the economy would have recovered this was – sadly – not to be the case, and the pandemic’s influence on the economy is still being felt and all the datasets I track tell me that, although we are certainly healing, COVID continues to act as a drag on economic growth and I expect that to continue through the spring of next year – if not a little longer.

Economic Recovery & Growth

And it’s because of this that I – along with many other economists – have spent the last few months lowering our forecasts for economic growth – at least through the middle of 2022. So, let’s look at this a little closer.

Here is my forecast for economic growth through the end of next year and you will note that, even though I am cautious in regard to the economy as we move through the winter and into 2022, I am still expecting to see a fairly decent bounce back in the fourth quarter of this year following the very disappointing rate that we saw in Q-3.

And on an annualized basis, I believe that the economy will have expanded by just shy of 5% this year and come in a little below 4% in 2022.

Simply put, the impacts of COVID-19 are going to continue to act as a drag on virus sensitive consumer services next year and ongoing supply chain issues will also delay inventory restocking. Both of these impacts have a depressing effect, in more ways than one, on economic growth, but I don’t see any chance that we will fall back into a recession.

A bar graph titled "Non-Farm Payrolls: Average Monthly Change & Forecast," with Q4 2019 through Q4 2022 on the x-axis and figures in the thousands from negative 5,000 to 2,000 on the y-axis. The low was negative 4,333 on Q2 2020 and the high was 1,342 in Q3 2020.

Looking at the employment picture this chart shows my forecast for average monthly growth in jobs during a quarter and to give you some context, over the last decade or so the country has added an average of around 200,000 jobs per month during any one quarter and my forecast is for more robust employment growth as we move through 2022 and, if correct, I expect to see the country return to pre-COVID employment levels in the second half of the year.

A bar graph titled "U.S. Unemployment Rate & Forecast," showing January 2020 to Q4 2022 on the x-axis and percentage figures on the y-axis, from 2% to 16%. The high was close to 15 percent in April 2020 and the low was just over 3 percent in January and February 2020.

And with jobs continuing to return I’m looking for the unemployment rate to continue trending lower and breaking south of 4% during the final quarter of the year. With the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits – in concert with wages rising significantly in many face-to-face industries such as leisure and hospitality – prospects for people currently unemployed are looking rather good. That said, there are still millions of unemployed Americans who are not looking for work even with wages rising, the labor force still down by 3 million from its pre-pandemic peak, and this is worrying as businesses continue to have a hard time finding employees which raises the expectation that inflation will remain higher for longer than I would have liked to see.

Measures of Inflation

And that leads nicely into my final economic forecast and that is my outlook for inflation. As we have discussed, supply chain issues and labor shortages have increased prices significantly and this top chart shows annual changes in all consumer prices which I expect to remain around 5% until next spring, before gradually dropping down to below 3% by the end of the year.

But the core inflation rate – which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors – won’t peak until early next year before it too starts to gradually pull back and, at these levels, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly have started to raise interest rates to counteract inflationary pressures. This is not pretty, but I absolutely do not believe that we are in some sort of inflationary spiral, or that “stagflation” will raise its ugly head again.

U.S. Housing Market

Okay! Now it’s time to turn our attention to the U.S. housing market which was a beacon of hope during the pandemic period and, given the massive spike in demand that started last June, I’m looking for a little more than 6 million existing homes will have changed hands in 2021, but I don’t see this level increasing in 2022 – mainly due to ongoing supply limitations as well as rising affordability issues, and I’m therefore forecasting sales to pull back – albeit very modestly – next year. That said, the country has never seen more than 6 million home selling in a single year since records were first kept so the number is still very impressive.

A slide titled "Solid Growth This Year & Next" with a bar graph titled "U.S. Existing Home Sales w/ Forecast." It shows the existing home sales in millions every year from 2021 to 2022. 2021 and 2022 have the highest figures on the graph, at 6.02 and 5.98 million respectively.

And with the market as tight as it has been so far this year, it shouldn’t be any surprise to see median sale prices skyrocketing and, even though we have 3 more months of sales data yet to be released, I still anticipate prices will have risen by almost 16 and a half % in 2021- a quite remarkable number. This pace of appreciation has never been seen before. In fact, the closest was back in 2005 – when the housing bubble was inflating rapidly – but even then, prices only rose by 12.2%.

A slide titled " Sales Prices Slow in 2022," with a bar graph titled "U.S. Median Sale Price of Existing Homes & Forecast," which shows the annual percentage change of single-family and multifamily units for the years 2012 through 2022. The highest figure is 16.4 percent in 2021, whereas the lowest in both in 2018 and 2019 at 4.9 percent.

But, as I mentioned in my sales forecast, this pace of growth is unsustainable and I am expecting to see some of the heat to come off the market next year but, a growth rate of 7.3% is certainly nothing to sniff at.

There are three major reasons why we will see the pace of growth slow. I have already mentioned my concerns regarding housing affordability, but mortgage rates and new supply will both influence the slowdown in sales and price growth in the resale arena.

A slide titled "Mortgage Rates Will Remain Favorable" with a bar graph titled "Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate History & Forecast." It shows a predicted increase mortgage rates from Q4 2021 at 3.13 percent to 3.78 percent in Q4 2022.

Although I do not prepare a forecast for housing affordability, this is my where I expect to see mortgage rates through the end of next year and I am looking for them to continue “stair-stepping” higher but still ending 2022 below 4% – very low by historic standards given that the long-term average for a conventional 30-year mortgage is somewhere around 7 1/2%.

Obviously, as rates notch higher that starts to compress price growth as it puts a lower ceiling on how much a buyer can afford to pay for a home.

A slide titled "New Home Starts Pick Up," with a bar graph titled "Single-Family Housing Starts w/ Forecast." The graph shows the housing starts in the thousands for the years 2012 through 2022. There is a gradual increase, from 535,000 in 2012 to an expected figure of over 1.2 million in 2022.

And slowing growth in existing home prices and sales will also be a function of additional supply and this chart shows my forecast for single-family starts this year and next. I expect more than a million homes to start construction in 2022 – continuing the trend that started in mid-2020 – but I am sure that some of you may be asking yourselves that if starts are already robust, how have existing home sales been able to increase so significantly if there has been solid supply coming from homebuilders – and that would be a great question.

And I would answer this by telling you that the way the Census gathers data on start is to count the number of home foundations that have been poured, but vertical construction has not necessarily started. And what we have been seeing is a lot of foundations but not so many homes actually being built – and we know this by looking at the number of homes that are for sale but have yet to be started. So, it’s important to look at a separate number that the Census Bureau also puts out which counts the number of units actually under construction, and that number has been growing significantly over the course of the last 18 months or so.

A slide titled "Growth Picks Up in 2022," with a bar graph titled "U.S. Single Family New Home Sales with Forecast." The graph shows the new home sales in thousands for the years 2012 through 2022. Sales were at a low of 368,000 in 2012, jumped to 835,000 in 2020, and are predicted to peak at 927,000 in 2022.

Builders have been hamstrung with rising labor and material costs which will lead new home sales this year to fall below the number seen in 2020; however, I do expect this to pick up significantly next year and my current forecast calls for 927,000 new homes to be sold in 2022.

So, there you have it, my economic and housing market forecast for 2022.

Of course, there are still a number of variables that could lead me to revise this forecast but, as an old economics professor of mine used to tell me, “Gardner, forecast well, but forecast often!”

If everything goes according to my plan, you should expect to see the housing market start to move towards some sort of balance next year, but I am afraid that it will still remain out of equilibrium until at least 2023.

And if you’re wondering, no, I don’t see a housing bubble forming and I’m also not at all concerned about homeowners currently in forbearance, but it would be silly to say that there aren’t any issues in the housing market that concern me because there are and the biggest of which is housing affordability and this will have a significant impact on the millennial generation who are continuing to get older, and they are all – well most – thinking about settling down and, possibly, having children, and I wonder how hard it will be for many of them to be able to afford to buy their first home because most really do want to become homeowners. Will builders figure out how to build to this massive pent-up demand? I guarantee you that whoever can solve this puzzle will do very, very well.

COVID-19 caused an unparalleled shock to the US economy and the rise of the delta variant has certainly impacted the speed of our recovery but, rest assured, this particular forecaster firmly believes that we will recover and that the economy will continue to grow.

Demand for ownership housing remains remarkably buoyant and, in fact, it is quite likely that demand may actually increase with the work from home paradigm that will start to gain momentum next year. It will be fascinating to watch how this impacts not just demand, but where these buyers will ultimately choose to live.

Design • November 14, 2021

A Guide to Upgrading Your Bedroom

by Carlene Sandstrom

A bedroom with an oval mirror in the corner, geometric drawings on the wall, a wooden nightstand and dresser.

For many homeowners, their ideal bedroom is that of a minimalist sanctuary—a place where you can kick your shoes off, relax, and get some shut eye. For others, making their bedroom as cozy as possible is their idea of perfection. No matter what kind of bedroom you’re dreaming of, keep the following information in mind as you prepare to make your upgrades.

A Guide to Upgrading Your Bedroom

How much does it cost to remodel a bedroom?

The total cost to remodel a bedroom depends on the size of the room and the scope of the remodel. According to a recent nationwide report by Fixr, the national cost range to remodel a bedroom is between $14,000 and $40,000, with the national average cost being roughly $21,000. While this might sound like a lot, it includes everything from hardwood floors and painted walls to new furniture and a custom closet.

Another factor that will dictate your budget is whether you plan on doing the remodel DIY or hiring a professional. Taking a DIY approach to your bedroom upgrades will save on labor costs and allows you to complete the project on your own schedule. However, if you get in over your head on a project and things go sideways, it can be costly to fix, and you may end up having to hire a pro to get things back on track.

Before you begin your remodel, create a list of tasks and all the sub-tasks involved to assess whether they are within your skill level to DIY. Determine whether the project requires a permit and check your local zoning regulations before making any additions or extensions to your bedroom.

Which bedroom projects are best for home value?

Adding a bedroom or converting a space into a bedroom can increase your home’s value. That’s because you increase the livable square footage while also making it more appealing to a wider variety of buyers. If your home has fewer bedrooms than other recently sold homes in your area, a bedroom addition may allow you to list at a more competitive price. Talk with your agent to get an idea of what types of upgrades buyers in your area are paying top-dollar for.

Simple Bedroom Upgrades

With costs for a small bedroom remodel averaging up to $20,000, a full-scale renovation may not be in the cards for every homeowner. Fortunately, there are plenty of budget-friendly ways to rejuvenate your bedroom. Here are a few tips to get you started:

Upgrade your décor: Appealing to the senses will help transform your bedroom in a snap. Add texture by swapping out your bed spread, pillows, and blankets. Go for plush to make it feel like you’re sleeping on a cloud or try vintage elements like knit fabrics for a more traditional comfort. Add natural elements like wood and stone to create an earthy atmosphere. Essential oils and scented candles can bring some added relaxation into the space.
New hardware and lighting: A simple trip to the hardware store can change the look and feel of your bedroom. Switch out your door handles, drawer pulls, shelves, and lighting fixtures to upgrade your bedroom in the span of a few hours. Select pieces that reinforce the theme you’re going for. For an industrial vibe, select rustic metals and materials. For a minimalist look, choose sleek metals like gold and chrome.
Decorate with plants: Not only will decorating your bedroom will plants spruce up the space, but they also help to improve air quality. If you have vaulted ceilings, shop around for vertical plants and hanging gardens that can make the most of your empty wall space. If you consider yourself a beginner gardener, consider low maintenance plants like cacti and succulents.