Design April 3, 2023

What Is a Tudor Style House?

One look at a Tudor style house and you’re instantly transported to the English countryside. This distinct architecture dates back hundreds of years, borrowing elements of Renaissance and Gothic design, and later experienced a revival in the United States that continued to grow in popularity through the mid-twentieth century. Similar to cottage homes, their medieval imagery evokes a storybook charm, and their unique combination of materials makes for a truly signature look.

 

A profile shot of a brown and white English Tudor style house with a thatched roof and a tall chimney. The siding is made up of half-timbering wood patterns and brick accents. The garden surrounding the home is in full bloom, producing lettuce and spices.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: oversnap

 

Features of Tudor Style Houses

Known for their brown-and-white color scheme, Tudor style houses are typically built from stone or bricks, with a façade of stucco and exposed timbering framing. The framing creates straight lines that connect each level of the home, giving it a sense of geometry. Their steep-pitched, intersecting gabled roofs are tailor-made for climates that experience high levels of precipitation; snow slides off before accumulating, and rainwater has a natural path to the gutter system.

 

The interior of a brown and white English Tudor style house with exposed wood ceiling beams. The furniture is soft Victorian-style, and the accent pieces are dark mahogany wood.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: IPGGutenbergUKLtd

 

From the outside of a Tudor home, you can imagine sitting around the hearth under exposed wood ceiling beams, taking in the cozy atmosphere as the fireplace crackles. And your imagination would be spot on! A large fireplace is a central feature of these homes, given that they were the primary heating source for households early on in their history. Arched entryways with stonework accents, decorative chimneys, and narrow, closely grouped windows are also defining features of Tudor architecture.

 

The front façade of a brown and white Tudor style house with interlocking gabled roofs, brick accents, a tall chimney, several windows, and a decorative front entrance with stone masonry framing the doorway. There are several shrubs and a hedge in the front yard garden beds.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: peterspiro

 

Once World War II-era housing development began to shift toward addressing suburban sprawl affordably, the masonry-heavy Tudor style house became less popular. However, they are still found throughout the U.S. today.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner March 28, 2023

Will Rising Foreclosures Impact the Housing Market?

How will rising foreclosures impact the U.S. housing market? To give his answer, Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner sheds light on the latest foreclosure data and shows how prepared home buyers are to manage their mortgage debt today compared to the 2000s.

This video on foreclosures is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.



Rising U.S. Foreclosures

The market has certainly shifted since mortgage rates started skyrocketing last year and, with prices pulling back across much of the country, some have started to become concerned about the likelihood of foreclosures rising—clearly a timely topic given current circumstances.

Hello there! I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and for this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew, I pulled the latest data on foreclosure starts and looked and the quality of mortgages that have been given to buyers in order to give you a clear idea of how foreclosures will impact the overall housing market.

For the purposes of this exercise, I’m going to concentrate on foreclosure starts rather than foreclosure filings because data shows us that a majority of homeowners where a foreclosure filing has been submitted to a court by their lender are able to avoid it by refinancing or selling the home, which makes total sense as over 93% of owners in the U.S. have positive equity.

 

U.S. Foreclosures: Starts 2007-2022

A bar graph showing U.S. foreclosures starts from 2007 to 2022. The numbers spiked in 2009 at over 2 million foreclosure starts and gradually decreased every year until 2022, where the numbers increased from 2021. Though they were 181% higher in 2022 than in 2021, it’s important to note that foreclosure starts in 2022 were 31% lower than 2019 and 88% lower than the 2009 peak.

 

As you can see here, foreclosure starts rose significantly last year. In fact, they were 181% higher than in 2021. But if we zoom out, it’s important to note that foreclosure starts were 31% lower than 2019 and 88% lower than the 2009 peak.

Am I surprised at the increase in foreclosure starts? Not really. The forbearance program was put in place at the start of the pandemic, and it allowed homeowners to temporarily stop making mortgage payments and not be foreclosed on, but that program ended 18 months ago.

And, although a vast majority of the 4.7 million households who entered the program have left it and sold or refinanced their homes, there were always going to be some who were not able to, and this has led to the overall foreclosure activity rising. Let’s take a closer look.

 

U.S. Foreclosures in 2022

A map showing foreclosures starts for each state in the U.S. California, Texas, and Florida have the highest number of foreclosure starts inn 2022. California had 27,541, Florida had 24,190, and Texas had 23,151.

 

This is a heat map of foreclosure starts by state. And you can see that California, Florida, and Texas saw the highest numbers in 2022. But remember that these are the states that have the greatest number of homes with mortgages so, statistically, we would expect the total number of homes in foreclosure in those states would be higher than the rest of the country. That said, foreclosure starts were significantly higher in Florida, California, Texas, and New York than they were in 2019, the last “pre-COVID” year and before the forbearance program started.

And when we look more myopically, metro areas including New York/New Jersey, Washington DC, the Delaware Valley, Atlanta, Miami, Baltimore, and Dallas all saw total foreclosure starts rise well above what they were in 2019. This may suggest that there are some markets that could see foreclosure activity rise to a level that could materially impact housing in those locations.

But looking at the country as a whole, there are other factors leading me to believe that we will not see the number of homes entering foreclosure rising above the long-term average, and certainly not sufficient to have a material impact on U.S. housing prices. 

Let me show you what’s happening on the mortgage side of things. First: credit quality.

 

Median FICO Scores for New Mortgages 2003-2022

A line graph showing the median FICO scores for new mortgages from Q1 2003 through Q3 2022. The median FICO score generally decreased from 2003 to the low of 707 during 2007, then gradually increased throughout the years 2008-2022. The median FICO score inn Q3 2022 was 766.

 

The median FICO score for new mortgages was 766 in the 4th quarter of 2022. Yes, this is down from the peak seen in early 2021 when it was a whopping 788 but as shown here, it’s far higher than we saw before the housing crisis. Buyers over the past several years had very good credit and, given the tight labor market, we are certainly in a very different place than back before the housing bubble burst.

 

Mortgage Debt Payments Percentages 2007-2022

A line graph showing mortgage debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income for home buyers from Q1 2007 through Q3 2022. In 2007, mortgage debt payments were around 7% of disposable personal income, in Q3 2022 it was 3.99%. Between those two points in time, the percentage gradually and consistently decreased.

 

Secondly, buyers are using larger down payments than in the mid-2000’s, and with the historically low mortgage rates that we saw during the first two years of the pandemic benefitting new buyers as well as allowing existing homeowners to refinance, the share of disposable income that is used to cover mortgage payments remains very low. This basically means that owners aren’t as burdened by their house payments as they were in 2007-2009. And finally…

 

Equity Rich Households Q4 2022

A map showing the percentage of equity rich households for each state in Q4 2022. The highest values are Vermont at 76.6%, Florida at roughly 62%, and California at 61.5%.

 

With the significant run-up in housing values that we have seen over the past few years, 48% of all homeowners with a mortgage have more than 50% equity. Although this share has pulled back a little as mortgage rates rose and values pulled back, it’s still a massive amount of money and, as I mentioned earlier, many homeowners who are faced with foreclosure will end up selling their homes as they still have positive equity rather than go through the foreclosure process.

So, my answer to those of you wondering if we will see foreclosures rise to a level that could impact the overall housing market is “no.”

I don’t see any reason to believe that distressed sales will hurt the market in general, but I will say that there are some local markets where distressed sales could rise to levels that could act as a headwind to price growth in these areas. As always, I’d love to get your thoughts on this topic so please comment below! Until next month, take care and I will see you all soon. Bye now.

 

To see the latest housing data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.

 


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Buyers March 21, 2023

How to Search for a Home: Buying Guide

The right home is out there, you just have to find it. This may seem like an oversimplification of the home search process, especially for first-time home buyers who haven’t been through it before. But once you’ve figured out your budget and discussed your needs with your real estate agent, you’ll be off and running. Here is a quick guide to help you get started on your home buying journey.

How to Search for a Home

Which houses can I afford?

Before you go perusing pages and pages of listings online, you’ll want to know your budget. Remember that while a home’s listing price is the main character in the list of home buying expenses, it’s not the only cost you’ll encounter. Knowing the full spectrum of the costs associated with buying a home will help you paint a clear picture of what you can afford. Once you’re familiar with these costs, you can strategize ways to save money to buy a house and plan to make a down payment.

To get an idea of what’s affordable, use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different down payment amounts to get estimates of your monthly payment for any listing price.

 

Mortgage Pre-Approval

Another way you can supercharge your home search efforts is to get pre-approved for a mortgage. Pre-approval has several benefits for prospective home buyers. It helps you understand the different types of home loans available to you and what interest rate you can expect when the time comes to lock in your mortgage. It also streamlines the home buying process once you’ve found the property you’d like to pursue.

 

A young heterosexual Caucasian couple view real estate listings on their laptop at the dining room table. The home is decorated with modern furniture and house plants.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Georgijevic

 

How do I find the right home?

Understanding your needs as a homeowner will help you narrow your selection pool. Before you start your home search, make a list of must-have and nice-to-have home features. This will inform your discussions with your real estate agent. Once they know what you consider a dealbreaker, they can pinpoint the right candidate homes.

So, where can you find available homes? Yes, driving around your neighborhood looking for “For Sale” signs is one way to go about it, but a vast majority of home shopping occurs online. Real estate websites like Windermere.com have advanced home search tools that allow you to filter by location, price, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, etc., plus helpful features like virtual tours, professional photography, maps, and more.

 

What are the different house styles?

Familiarizing yourself with the different architectural styles will help to inform your home search. Understanding the differences between a Craftsman home and a Cottage home can make a big difference when you’re house hunting. Each style has its own unique characteristics, perspective on space, and flair. Knowing what kind of architecture and home design you’re drawn to will also help your agent conduct more efficient home searches.

Working with a Real Estate Agent

Your real estate agent will be your greatest resource during your home search. They have access to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), the largest network of homes on the market. Your agent will use the MLS to create customized searches for available listings and can easily connect with sellers’ agents to coordinate next steps.

Living March 7, 2023

What’s a Home Warranty and Why Do You Need One?

To be a homeowner is to understand that things can change at a moment’s notice. It’s only a matter of time before the systems in your home break and your appliances are on the fritz. But this inevitable truth isn’t meant to be all doom and gloom. Fortunately, you can protect yourself against these events with a home warranty.

What is a home warranty?

A home warranty and homeowners insurance both protect homeowners against unexpected events. A standard homeowners insurance policy typically covers your home, your belongings, injury, or property damage to others, and living expenses if you are unable to live in your home temporarily because of an insured disaster.

The policy likely pays to repair or rebuild your home if it is damaged or destroyed by disasters, such as wildfires, a winter storm, or lightning. Your belongings, such as furniture and clothing, are also insured against these types of disasters, as well as theft. Some risks, such as your home flooding, are routinely excluded from homeowners insurance policies.

A home warranty picks up where homeowners insurance leaves off by covering some or all of your HVAC, electrical systems, plumbing, and major appliances. A home warranty contract pays for the repair costs associated with these household items. However, if something in your home has not been properly maintained, your home warranty likely won’t cover it. Clarify the specifics of your policy’s language regarding proper maintenance with your warranty provider to avoid potential disagreements. Most home warranties are good for one year with the ability to renew annually.

What does a home warranty cover?

Home warranty policies vary by provider and location. Different coverages offer different protections among your home’s systems and appliances, or a combination of the two. Fees vary as well, based on your plan’s coverages and applicable service fees.

 

A young interracial heterosexual couple sits at their dining room table in the open concept kitchen of their new home reviewing their home warranty policy printed out with their laptop open.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: PeopleImages

 

Why do you need a home warranty?

Home warranties have several benefits both for buyers and sellers. For buyers, you can rest assured that your appliances are covered if and when they break down. This saves you from unexpected repair bills from having to hire a contractor. And when selling your home, a home warranty can serve as a way to differentiate your property over other listings. When buyers know a home is protected with a warranty, they can buy with confidence.

Finding the Right Home Warranty

As with anything in the home buying or selling process, it’s important to shop around when searching for the right home warranty policy. During your discovery process, ask questions about the policy’s costs, its dollar amount limit, which items it covers, and its applicable fees including service calls. Talk to your agent about trusted warranty providers in your area.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner February 28, 2023

Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Financial Benefits of Homeownership

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.


 


Renting vs. Buying a Home

One of my followers asked me about some of the financial benefits of owning your home as opposed to renting. I find this topic interesting as there really is a “laundry list” of reasons that, from a financial standpoint, owning a home is better than renting.

I’m Matthew Gardner Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Let’s get to the topic at hand. Of course, I don’t have time to go through them all today but here are the ones that I think are the most compelling: wealth building and tax benefits.

The Financial Benefits of Homeownership 

The first thing to understand is that, over time, a mortgage becomes easier to afford. You see, when you buy a home, the mortgage payments themselves don’t change and, over time, your earnings rise but the mortgage payment doesn’t. Simply put, unlike renters who generally see their rents going up every year, your mortgage payment never will and because you’ll hopefully be making more money as time goes by, the share of your income that you spend on a mortgage payment becomes less & less.

The next advantage to owning your home is that it is a good long-term investment. Of course, some will say that this is not the case because we went through the housing bubble bursting back in 2006 but there have actually been very few times in history when home prices have seen any long-term downward adjustment.

Now I know some will say that investing in stocks would give you a higher long-term return. My response to that would be I’ve never seen anyone living under a stock certificate. Have you?

My next reason for believing that ownership is better than renting is rather simple, and that is because a portion of every mortgage payment you make goes toward reducing the principal amount of the loan. Of course, during a majority of the term of the mortgage most of the payment is going towards interest but, a small portion is paying down the debt itself—in essence making it a forced savings plan, building wealth along the way.

Tax Advantages of Owning a Home

But what about the tax advantages? Owning a home offers unique and substantial ways to save on your taxes every year. Firstly, you can deduct your real estate taxes every year. Now, tax reform has limited the total allowed deduction, but it is still meaningful. You can also deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage. Again, there are some limitations but, depending on where you live you could save a significant amount.

And finally, let’s talk Capital Gains Taxes. When you sell your primary residence and have seen its value grow since you purchased it, up to $250,000 of that profit (if you’re a single person) or $500,000 if you’re married and filing jointly is tax free. Now, this is only true if you meet certain requirements with the biggest one being that you have to have lived in the house for a minimum of two years during the preceding five-year period.

If that’s not enough to convince you that there are very significant advantages to owning a home over renting, I will leave you with one last datapoint that you may find of interest.

Renting vs. Owning a Home: Household Net Worth

Using Federal Reserve data as a base, I’ve been able to calculate the median net worth of a household in America who owned their homes versus a household that rents.

  • In 2022, the median household wealth of a homeowner household here in America was approximately $330,000.
  • The median household wealth for a renter household in this country last year was just $8,000.

As you can see, that’s quite the discrepancy between the two. I think it’s very clear that homeownership for a vast majority of families is how they create most of their wealth.

I hope you found this topic of interest. Of course, if you have any questions or comments please do let me know as I do enjoy hearing from you. Take care and I look forward to talking to you all again next month.

 

Data combined and calculated by Windermere Economics


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Design February 20, 2023

What Makes a Home Modern? 6 Features of Modern Architecture

Sleek, sustainable design, open concept floor plans, minimalism, and eco-conscious thinking are defining characteristics of modern architecture. These concepts were formed in the early to mid-twentieth century as part of the modern art movement which encompassed art deco interior design and mid-century modern architecture among other styles. Here’s a breakdown of the features that define modern architecture.

6 Features of Modern Architecture

1. Clean Geometric Lines

At the heart of modernist values lies the simplification of form. Ornate decorations quickly became a thing of the past as designers became focused on taking a no-frills approach to home design. Modernist homes have a very linear feel with straight lines and exposed building materials, as opposed to more irregular shapes that were popular in the past.

2. Multifunctional Spaces

Multifunctional living spaces are a foundational element of modern homes. Built-in storage is commonly used to reflect this multi-purpose, space-saving feel. This gives added significance to the spaces in a home by upping each one’s utility. It creates an environment where everything has purpose.

3. Eco-Friendly

Modern homes are well suited for technological and eco-friendly home upgrades, as well as eco-friendly building materials and energy efficient practices, and flat roofs to accommodate solar power. A new trend is to decorate each room with plants for a calming, soothing effect. Large windows are abundant in modern architecture, allowing light to fill and expand the interior space, bringing the natural world indoors.

 

The interior of a modern home kitchen with granite countertops, hardwood floors, dark oak cabinets, and a stainless-steel range and dishwasher.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: irina88w

 

4. Post-and-Beam Structure

Exposed wood posts and ceiling beams are classic elements in modern architecture and modern offshoots like farmhouse interior design. Modern homes significantly emphasize the structure rather than hiding the bones behind drywall. In new modern homes the post-and-beam structure can be made of concrete, iron, or other materials. The visible horizontal and vertical beams reinforce the clean geometric lines of the space.

5. Open Concept

Modern design strives to “open” the space by eliminating enclosed rooms. A common design method is to open the kitchen and dining room into an open living space, allowing the spaces to flow into one another.

6. Minimalism

With open and connected modernist spaces, careful curation of furniture, décor, and household objects is paramount to incorporating the modernist aesthetic. Generally, modernist homes have art and furniture that reflects the clean geometric lines and the natural materials of the architecture, leaving less space for clutter. Minimalist philosophies encourage few household items that serve both form and function, which work well within this design and architectural style.

 

The interior of a modern home open-concept living room/dining room area with minimalist decorations and features: neutral-colored carpet, hardwood floors, beige couch and chairs, and a fireplace in the dining room.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: alvarez

 

Contemporary vs. Modern Architecture & Design 

The terms “contemporary” and “modern” are thrown around interchangeably. They do possess a certain degree of overlapping qualities, but specifically in the design world, “modern” refers to styles influenced by the early to mid-twentieth century movement, while contemporary design is what is popular in the present. Whatever interior design trends are at the forefront can be said to be contemporary, while modern interior design is still influenced by a specific period in the past.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner February 6, 2023

Q4 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.

❱ Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Here are the totals: Jefferson at -19.9%, Skagit at -27.7%, Mason -30.7%, Lewis -30.9%, Clallam -34.3%, Whatcom -36.3%, Kitsap -38.5%, Snohomish -40.3%, Island -42%, Grays Harbor -42.3%, King -43.1%, Thurston -45.8%, San Juan -46.8%, Pierce -46.9%.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.

❱ The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.

❱ Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.

❱ Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Grays Harbor and Whatcom Counties have a percentage change in the -6.5% to -3.6%+ range, Clallam, Jefferson, King, and Skagit counties are in the -3.5% to -0.6% change range, Snohomish and Pierce are in the -0.5% to 2.4% change range, Mason, Thurston, Island, and Lewis counties are in the 2.5% to 5.4% change range, and San Juan County is in the 5.5%+ change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. San Juan County tops the list at 6.9%, followed by Lewis at 4.8%, Thurston at 3.8%, Island at 3.7%, Mason at 3.5%, Snohomish at 0.8%, Pierce at -0.2%, Clallam at -1%, Skagit at -2.1%, Jefferson at -2.5%, King at -3.1%, Whatcom at -4.1%, Kitsap at -5.3%, and finally Grays Harbor at -6.5%.

Mortgage Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.

My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q4 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates dipping to 6.27% in Q1 2023, 6.09% in Q2 2023, 5.76% in Q3 2023, and 5.42% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.

❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.

❱ Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q4 2022. King County has the lowest DOM at 31, followed by Kitsap at 45, Island and Snohomish at 35, Whatcom, Thurston, and Skagit at 36, Pierce at 37, Clallam at 38, Jefferson at 40, Mason at 43, Grays Harbor at 46, Lewis at 49, and San Juan at 74.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market, barely leaning toward a seller's market in Western Washington in Q4 2022.

Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner January 23, 2023

2023 Real Estate Forecast: Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.



Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it.

2023 Real Estate Forecast

Existing Home Sales & Forecast

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the existing home sales for the years 2015 through 2021, plus forecasts for 2022 and 2023. The y-axis is in millions and the x-axis contains the years. The numbers are as follows (in millions): 5.3 in 2015, 5.5 in 2016 and 2017, 5.3 in 2018 and 2019, 5.6 in 2020, 6.1 in 2021, 5.1 (forecasted) in 2022, and 4.8 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

U.S. home sales trended lower through all of 2022 and, although I believe that sales will still have held above five million, this certainly won’t be the case in 2023. Affordability and higher financing costs will continue to act as headwinds when it comes to sales, but I think that the bigger issue will be that listing activity will not rise significantly as we move through the year.

As I have been saying for several months now, I don’t see why many households who don’t have to move will move and lose the historically low interest rate that they currently benefit from. That said, sales will still occur this year but at just 4.8 million, sales will be lower than we have seen since 2014.

Annual Change in Median Sale Prices

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the annual change in median sale prices for homes in the U.S. real estate market. The years 2015 through 2023 are on the x-axis and percentages -4% through 20% run the length of the y-axis. The numbers are as follows: 6.8% in 2015, 5.1% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017, 4.9% in 2018 and 2019, 9.1% in 2020, 18.2% in 2021, 8.7% (forecasted) in 2022, and -1.1% (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

Much has been said about the future of home prices, with some forecasters even suggesting that housing prices will collapse in a similar fashion to that seen following the bursting of the housing bubble back in 2008. Now, although price growth through the pandemic period was clearly excessive, fundamentally speaking, the two periods cannot be considered to be similar at all.

It’s my opinion that sale prices in 2023 will be very modestly lower than last year and I certainly don’t expect to see a collapse in home values.

But not all markets are created equal. The pandemic created what has become known as “Zoom-Towns.” These were cheap markets that affluent buyers flocked to because of their newly found ability to work from home and this led sale prices there to soar. It’s these locations that will likely see prices fall more significantly. Ultimately, expect to see prices fall through the first half of this year before starting to recover in the second half.

New Home Starts & Forecast (Single Family)

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph of the single-family new home starts. The y-axis shows numbers in thousands from 0 to 1,200 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The numbers are as follows: 715 in 2015, 782 in 2016, 849 in 2017, 876 in 2018, 888 in 2019, 991 in 2020, 1,127 in 2021, 1,009 (forecasted) in 2022, and 837 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

Looking now at the new construction market, housing starts fell last year as construction costs remained high and mortgage rates rose which lowered demand.  And I’m afraid that I do not see 2023 as being one where builders will deliver more inventory, with starts pulling back to a level the country hasn’t seen since 2016. That said, I am expecting a recovery in 2024 when new home starts will break back above the 1,000,000 level.

New Home Sales Forecast

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the new home sales numbers from the U.S. housing market. The y-axis shows (in thousands) the numbers 200 to 900 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The number of new home sales are as follows (in thousands): 501 in 2015, 561 in 2016, 613 in 2017, 617 in 2018, 683 in 2019, 822 in 2020, 771 in 2021, 653 (forecasted) in 2022, and 584 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

New home sales in 2023 will fall further coming in below 600,000 but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with sales picking up fairly significantly again in 2024. We all understand that the country has a significant undersupply of ownership housing, but the costs associated with building new homes is still making it remarkably hard for builders even though they understand that demand will be significant for at least the next decade and a half given current demographics.

But the problem they will continue to face is that demand will primarily come from entry level buyers and, simply put, the cost to build a home precludes many developers from being able to meet this demand.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Forecast

A bar graph showing the average 30-year mortgage rate for the years 2015 through 2023. The y-axis shows percentages ranging from 0% to 7% and the years are displayed on the x-axis. The numbers are as follows: 3.9% in 2015, 3.7% in 2016, 4% in 2017, 4.5% in 2018, 3.9% in 2019, 3.1% in 2020, 3% in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and 6.1% (forecasted) in 2023. This is the mortgage rate component of Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

And finally, my forecast for mortgage rates in 2023. Although this might not look good at all, as they say, “the devil is in the details.” Rates skyrocketed last year as the Fed stopped buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and, although they are off the highs we saw toward the end of last year, they are still significantly higher today than the market has become used to seeing.

As you can see here, I’m anticipating the average 30-year conventional rate to average 6.1% in 2023, but my forecast is actually a bit better than this shows.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast 2023

A bar graph showing the average 30-year mortgage rate in recent quarters, plus a forecast of the mortgage rate for each quarter in 2023. The y-axis displays percentages ranging from 0% to 7% and the x-axis displays the quarters from Q4 2021 to Q4 2023. The numbers are as follows: 3.1% in Q4 2021, 3.8% in Q1 2022, 5.3% in Q2 2022, 5.6% in Q3 2022, 6.8% in Q4 2022, 6.4% (forecasted) in Q1 2023, 6.1% (forecasted) in Q2 2023, 6% (forecasted) in Q3 2023, and 5.6% (forecasted) in Q4 2023. This is the mortgage rate component to Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

You see, my quarterly forecast suggests that rates have actually already peaked, and that they will trend lower as we move through this year and break below 6% by the fourth quarter. I would add that if anything my forecast may be a little pessimistic, and rates may end 2023 a little lower than I am showing here.

But that will depend on the Fed, and how long they will continue raising rates, and how long it will take before they start to lower them if the US enters a recession this year, which many forecasters including myself believe will be the case.

So, there you have it, my 2023 U.S. housing forecast. I will leave you with this one last thought. 2023 will be a transition year when the housing market will come off the “high” we saw during the pandemic and borrowing costs were artificially low.

I don’t see any reason for buyers or sellers to panic though. By the end of 2023, most markets will have corrected themselves and I believe we will see prices and demand start to pick up again toward the end of this year, but at a far more normalized pace.

As always, I look forward to your comments on my forecasts and I’ll see you all again next month. Take care now.

 


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BuyersSellers January 9, 2023

What is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)?

In the process of buying or selling a home, you’ll frequently come across the term “MLS.” The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a group of regional databases of homes for sale accessible only to real estate agents and brokers. Their ability to access the MLS makes it easier for buyers to find the right home and for sellers to market their listings.

What is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)?

The purpose of an MLS is to facilitate real estate transactions by connecting real estate agents and making it easy for them to share information about active listings and sold home data. For buyers and sellers, your agent’s access to the MLS means you’ll be connected to the largest network of homes and listing information on the market.

Each MLS shows the homes for sale in a particular geographic area. Listing agents add their clients’ listings to the database—providing photos and detailed information about the property—so buyer’s agents can show them to their clients. The MLS allows for customizable searches, which agents use to easily identify the homes that match their clients’ criteria. The vast amount of historical data available on the MLS is what your agent will use to conduct their Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) to competitively price your home. The listing data in the MLS is fed to real estate brokerage websites, such as Windermere.com, so that buyers can search for homes on their own as well.

 

In a small office, a real estate agent hands the keys to a new home to their clients. The real estate contract is on the table in front of them.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: fizkes

 

Benefits of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

Selling a home is a numbers game. The more potential buyers you can reach, the more likely you are to find the right buyer in a timely manner. After your agent conducts their CMA to determine the value of your home, they’ll upload the listing to the MLS. Here they can add additional information beyond what you would find in a typical listing description, such as showing times, contact information, and more. The MLS provides maximum visibility for sellers by connecting them to buyer’s agents who are actively searching for listings. The MLS has also helped to make the industry more equitable. Small real estate brokerages have access to the same MLS info as large companies, putting everyone on a level playing field.

What is an MLS number?

An MLS number is a unique code for each home listed on the market. It makes it easier for agents to communicate regarding a specific property. To learn more about the MLS, or for answers to your buying and selling questions, connect with a me today.

Design December 27, 2022

5 Interior Design Trends for 2023

The interior design trends of 2022 included a renaissance of colorful decorating, a preference for sustainable materials, and incorporating nature throughout the home. They reflected the continued evolution of our lifestyles in recent years and showed an overall desire for our homes to be somewhere we can relax, decompress, and focus on our wellbeing.

With 2023 just around the corner, expect to see the latest design trends continue that trajectory of creating a home that’s vibrant yet soothing.

5 Interior Design Trends for 2023

1. Butler’s Pantries

There’s something endlessly fascinating about features throughout a home that tie spaces together and create harmony. A butler’s pantry is the perfect resource for homeowners who feel their kitchens are always running at capacity. Typically located adjacent to the kitchen or dining room, modern butler’s pantries are often concealed behind cabinets or pocket doors. An economical solution for food and kitchen item storage, they allow you to prep meals outside the kitchen, gather silverware, and prepare to set the table. Kitchens are the heart of the home, and this space has taken on even more significance in recent years. It’s no wonder these special home features are on the rise.

 

A look through a modern kitchen to a butler’s pantry with a separate entrance. The shelves are stocked with silverware and china.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: PC Photography

 

2. Colorful Kitchens

Color in the kitchen is back in style! The neutral-toned backdrop of farmhouse-style interiors that leapt to the forefront of home design in recent years is still popular, but homeowners can expect to see more bold colors in 2023. The kitchen island, cabinets, and backsplash are three target areas for adding color to your kitchen. These large surface areas are tailor-made for color splashes to lead the eye throughout the room. Experiment with complimentary tile designs, two-toned cabinets, and dark-stained wood to create a kitchen atmosphere that feels anything but bland.

 

A modern kitchen with state-of-the-art appliances and matching navy-blue cabinets and drawers with gold handles. The island has a matching navy base and warm butcher-block like wood top. Against bright white walls and with metallic accents, the space is both colorful and warm.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: JohnnyGreig

 

3. Organic Materials and Décor

In some ways, the design trends that defined 2022 will continue into next year. One such trend that will ring true in 2023 is a desire to fill the home with organic materials. Indoor plants will continue to be a popular decorative item throughout the home, both for their health benefits and their ability to mix and match with any décor style. In the living room, natural materials like stone, wood, and organic fabrics will help tie a home’s organic aesthetic together. And in the kitchen, stone and marble countertops add an earthy touch.

 

A young woman works from home on her laptop surrounded by house plants. The walls are off white, and with white plaster planters and natural wood accents, the green color of the plants pops against the clean backdrop.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Tatiana Buzmakova

 

4. Earth Tones

While bold colors are making their return to the kitchen, earth tones will help to balance out homeowners’ interior design palettes next year. Many design leaders’ color of the year selections for 2023 are in, all showcasing unconventional takes on earthy colors. Whether it’s beige, magenta, cream, or forest green, you can use these shades throughout your home to create balance and ground your bolder color choices elsewhere. Looking to swap out your grey couch? Have you always wanted to paint your gallery wall something other than off-white? Now is the time!

 

A living room designed with earth tones. The rattan chair and side tables are a wood-toned brown, the walls are painted with a warm latte color, the pillows and couch range from off-white to clay, and the hardwood floor is a light-stained wood. Black accents round out the room which has a calm and cozy ambience.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FollowTheFlow

 

5. Intentional Spaces

Homeowners have made significant adjustments to their lifestyles in recent years. For many, that’s meant spending time on their hobbies, exercising, and working on passion projects at home, whereas previously they may have gone elsewhere. After a couple years of making do with whatever space was available, moving forward, we’ll see a more intentional approach to creating space at home for those activities. Whether it’s building out a home gym, setting up your home office, craft room, art studio, yoga sanctuary, etc., having a dedicated area allows for privacy and focus while doing the things you love.

 

A woman cuts shapes out of construction paper in her craft room.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Petar Chernaev

 

Interior design trends continue to evolve with our lifestyles and needs as homeowners.