Market News • Matthew Gardner • February 6, 2023

Q4 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Carlene Sandstrom

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.

❱ Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.

❱ The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.

❱ Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.

❱ Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Grays Harbor and Whatcom Counties have a percentage change in the -6.5% to -3.6%+ range, Clallam, Jefferson, King, and Skagit counties are in the -3.5% to -0.6% change range, Snohomish and Pierce are in the -0.5% to 2.4% change range, Mason, Thurston, Island, and Lewis counties are in the 2.5% to 5.4% change range, and San Juan County is in the 5.5%+ change range.

Mortgage Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.

My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q4 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates dipping to 6.27% in Q1 2023, 6.09% in Q2 2023, 5.76% in Q3 2023, and 5.42% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.

❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.

❱ Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q4 2022. King County has the lowest DOM at 31, followed by Kitsap at 45, Island and Snohomish at 35, Whatcom, Thurston, and Skagit at 36, Pierce at 37, Clallam at 38, Jefferson at 40, Mason at 43, Grays Harbor at 46, Lewis at 49, and San Juan at 74.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market, barely leaning toward a seller's market in Western Washington in Q4 2022.

Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • January 23, 2023

2023 Real Estate Forecast: Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008

by Carlene Sandstrom

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it.

2023 Real Estate Forecast

Existing Home Sales & Forecast

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

U.S. home sales trended lower through all of 2022 and, although I believe that sales will still have held above five million, this certainly won’t be the case in 2023. Affordability and higher financing costs will continue to act as headwinds when it comes to sales, but I think that the bigger issue will be that listing activity will not rise significantly as we move through the year.

As I have been saying for several months now, I don’t see why many households who don’t have to move will move and lose the historically low interest rate that they currently benefit from. That said, sales will still occur this year but at just 4.8 million, sales will be lower than we have seen since 2014.

Annual Change in Median Sale Prices

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

Much has been said about the future of home prices, with some forecasters even suggesting that housing prices will collapse in a similar fashion to that seen following the bursting of the housing bubble back in 2008. Now, although price growth through the pandemic period was clearly excessive, fundamentally speaking, the two periods cannot be considered to be similar at all.

It’s my opinion that sale prices in 2023 will be very modestly lower than last year and I certainly don’t expect to see a collapse in home values.

But not all markets are created equal. The pandemic created what has become known as “Zoom-Towns.” These were cheap markets that affluent buyers flocked to because of their newly found ability to work from home and this led sale prices there to soar. It’s these locations that will likely see prices fall more significantly. Ultimately, expect to see prices fall through the first half of this year before starting to recover in the second half.

New Home Starts & Forecast (Single Family)

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph of the single-family new home starts. The y-axis shows numbers in thousands from 0 to 1,200 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The numbers are as follows: 715 in 2015, 782 in 2016, 849 in 2017, 876 in 2018, 888 in 2019, 991 in 2020, 1,127 in 2021, 1,009 (forecasted) in 2022, and 837 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

Looking now at the new construction market, housing starts fell last year as construction costs remained high and mortgage rates rose which lowered demand. And I’m afraid that I do not see 2023 as being one where builders will deliver more inventory, with starts pulling back to a level the country hasn’t seen since 2016. That said, I am expecting a recovery in 2024 when new home starts will break back above the 1,000,000 level.

New Home Sales Forecast

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

New home sales in 2023 will fall further coming in below 600,000 but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with sales picking up fairly significantly again in 2024. We all understand that the country has a significant undersupply of ownership housing, but the costs associated with building new homes is still making it remarkably hard for builders even though they understand that demand will be significant for at least the next decade and a half given current demographics.

But the problem they will continue to face is that demand will primarily come from entry level buyers and, simply put, the cost to build a home precludes many developers from being able to meet this demand.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Forecast

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

And finally, my forecast for mortgage rates in 2023. Although this might not look good at all, as they say, “the devil is in the details.” Rates skyrocketed last year as the Fed stopped buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and, although they are off the highs we saw toward the end of last year, they are still significantly higher today than the market has become used to seeing.

As you can see here, I’m anticipating the average 30-year conventional rate to average 6.1% in 2023, but my forecast is actually a bit better than this shows.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast 2023

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

You see, my quarterly forecast suggests that rates have actually already peaked, and that they will trend lower as we move through this year and break below 6% by the fourth quarter. I would add that if anything my forecast may be a little pessimistic, and rates may end 2023 a little lower than I am showing here.

But that will depend on the Fed, and how long they will continue raising rates, and how long it will take before they start to lower them if the US enters a recession this year, which many forecasters including myself believe will be the case.

So, there you have it, my 2023 U.S. housing forecast. I will leave you with this one last thought. 2023 will be a transition year when the housing market will come off the “high” we saw during the pandemic and borrowing costs were artificially low.

I don’t see any reason for buyers or sellers to panic though. By the end of 2023, most markets will have corrected themselves and I believe we will see prices and demand start to pick up again toward the end of this year, but at a far more normalized pace.

As always, I look forward to your comments on my forecasts and I’ll see you all again next month. Take care now.

About Matthew Gardner

Buyers • Sellers • January 9, 2023

What is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)?

by Carlene Sandstrom

In a conference room, a real estate agent talks to her clients about the homes for sale she has found on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

In the process of buying or selling a home, you’ll frequently come across the term “MLS.” The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a group of regional databases of homes for sale accessible only to real estate agents and brokers. Their ability to access the MLS makes it easier for buyers to find the right home and for sellers to market their listings.

What is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)?

The purpose of an MLS is to facilitate real estate transactions by connecting real estate agents and making it easy for them to share information about active listings and sold home data. For buyers and sellers, your agent’s access to the MLS means you’ll be connected to the largest network of homes and listing information on the market.

Each MLS shows the homes for sale in a particular geographic area. Listing agents add their clients’ listings to the database—providing photos and detailed information about the property—so buyer’s agents can show them to their clients. The MLS allows for customizable searches, which agents use to easily identify the homes that match their clients’ criteria. The vast amount of historical data available on the MLS is what your agent will use to conduct their Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) to competitively price your home. The listing data in the MLS is fed to real estate brokerage websites, such as Windermere.com, so that buyers can search for homes on their own as well.

In a small office, a real estate agent hands the keys to a new home to their clients. The real estate contract is on the table in front of them.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: fizkes

Benefits of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)

Selling a home is a numbers game. The more potential buyers you can reach, the more likely you are to find the right buyer in a timely manner. After your agent conducts their CMA to determine the value of your home, they’ll upload the listing to the MLS. Here they can add additional information beyond what you would find in a typical listing description, such as showing times, contact information, and more. The MLS provides maximum visibility for sellers by connecting them to buyer’s agents who are actively searching for listings. The MLS has also helped to make the industry more equitable. Small real estate brokerages have access to the same MLS info as large companies, putting everyone on a level playing field.

What is an MLS number?

An MLS number is a unique code for each home listed on the market. It makes it easier for agents to communicate regarding a specific property. To learn more about the MLS, or for answers to your buying and selling questions, connect with a me today.

Design • December 27, 2022

5 Interior Design Trends for 2023

by Carlene Sandstrom

A living room in a modern home decorated with some of the top interior design trends for 2023 including earth tones like off-white, light browns, and blues and organic materials like linen and marble.

The interior design trends of 2022 included a renaissance of colorful decorating, a preference for sustainable materials, and incorporating nature throughout the home. They reflected the continued evolution of our lifestyles in recent years and showed an overall desire for our homes to be somewhere we can relax, decompress, and focus on our wellbeing.

With 2023 just around the corner, expect to see the latest design trends continue that trajectory of creating a home that’s vibrant yet soothing.

5 Interior Design Trends for 2023

1. Butler’s Pantries

There’s something endlessly fascinating about features throughout a home that tie spaces together and create harmony. A butler’s pantry is the perfect resource for homeowners who feel their kitchens are always running at capacity. Typically located adjacent to the kitchen or dining room, modern butler’s pantries are often concealed behind cabinets or pocket doors. An economical solution for food and kitchen item storage, they allow you to prep meals outside the kitchen, gather silverware, and prepare to set the table. Kitchens are the heart of the home, and this space has taken on even more significance in recent years. It’s no wonder these special home features are on the rise.

A look through a modern kitchen to a butler’s pantry with a separate entrance. The shelves are stocked with silverware and china.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: PC Photography

2. Colorful Kitchens

Color in the kitchen is back in style! The neutral-toned backdrop of farmhouse-style interiors that leapt to the forefront of home design in recent years is still popular, but homeowners can expect to see more bold colors in 2023. The kitchen island, cabinets, and backsplash are three target areas for adding color to your kitchen. These large surface areas are tailor-made for color splashes to lead the eye throughout the room. Experiment with complimentary tile designs, two-toned cabinets, and dark-stained wood to create a kitchen atmosphere that feels anything but bland.

A modern kitchen with state-of-the-art appliances and matching navy-blue cabinets and drawers with gold handles. The island has a matching navy base and warm butcher-block like wood top. Against bright white walls and with metallic accents, the space is both colorful and warm.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: JohnnyGreig

3. Organic Materials and Décor

In some ways, the design trends that defined 2022 will continue into next year. One such trend that will ring true in 2023 is a desire to fill the home with organic materials. Indoor plants will continue to be a popular decorative item throughout the home, both for their health benefits and their ability to mix and match with any décor style. In the living room, natural materials like stone, wood, and organic fabrics will help tie a home’s organic aesthetic together. And in the kitchen, stone and marble countertops add an earthy touch.

A young woman works from home on her laptop surrounded by house plants. The walls are off white, and with white plaster planters and natural wood accents, the green color of the plants pops against the clean backdrop.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Tatiana Buzmakova

4. Earth Tones

While bold colors are making their return to the kitchen, earth tones will help to balance out homeowners’ interior design palettes next year. Many design leaders’ color of the year selections for 2023 are in, all showcasing unconventional takes on earthy colors. Whether it’s beige, magenta, cream, or forest green, you can use these shades throughout your home to create balance and ground your bolder color choices elsewhere. Looking to swap out your grey couch? Have you always wanted to paint your gallery wall something other than off-white? Now is the time!

A living room designed with earth tones. The rattan chair and side tables are a wood-toned brown, the walls are painted with a warm latte color, the pillows and couch range from off-white to clay, and the hardwood floor is a light-stained wood. Black accents round out the room which has a calm and cozy ambience.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FollowTheFlow

5. Intentional Spaces

Homeowners have made significant adjustments to their lifestyles in recent years. For many, that’s meant spending time on their hobbies, exercising, and working on passion projects at home, whereas previously they may have gone elsewhere. After a couple years of making do with whatever space was available, moving forward, we’ll see a more intentional approach to creating space at home for those activities. Whether it’s building out a home gym, setting up your home office, craft room, art studio, yoga sanctuary, etc., having a dedicated area allows for privacy and focus while doing the things you love.

A woman cuts shapes out of construction paper in her craft room.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Petar Chernaev

Interior design trends continue to evolve with our lifestyles and needs as homeowners.

Living • December 12, 2022

Simple Garage Makeover Ideas

by Carlene Sandstrom

Yellow three car garage attached to a home in a residential community. The garage is very neat and clean. It is well organized with shelves, bicycle racks, a work area and storage cabinets. It also has a flat screen tv on the wall. There are no cars in the garage.

For some homeowners, the garage is the focal point of their home. For others, it is simply a storage space or a place to park their vehicle. Regardless of how you use your garage, these simple garage makeover ideas can help keep you organized, boost your curb appeal, and increase your home’s value.

Simple Garage Makeover Ideas

Garage Exterior

The garage door is a natural starting point for your garage makeover. A garage door replacement is a surefire way to increase the value of your home and is a common tactic for drumming up buyer interest when preparing to hit the market. But even if you don’t have the budget for a full-scale replacement, a DIY garage door makeover can still make a big difference.

Repaint Garage Exterior

Begin by prepping your garage door for a fresh coat of paint. Clean and scrub the surface with warm soapy water. Scrape off any loose paint with a putty knife or wire brush. If scraping manually is too taxing for you, use a wire wheel brush tool. Rinse and clean the door, letting it dry completely before you begin painting.

Once you’ve covered your driveway with a tarp or plastic sheeting to protect it from paint spills, you’re ready to begin painting. Choose a complimentary color for your trim to tie together your home’s exterior color scheme. Check out different styles of garage door hardware options that match the style of your home, choose your layout, and install the pieces.

A luxury lodge-style home at sunset with timber wood framing and stone columns. The garage is attached to the home. The exterior is painted a mix of forest green and brown with deep red trim and an orange door.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: hikesterson

Garage Interior

As you turn your attention to your garage’s interior, consider refinishing the floor first. By starting with the floor, you won’t have to continually shuffle your garage items around as you continue your makeover. If you’re considering converting your garage into a home gym, factor that in as you work on the flooring.

Start by fixing any cracks or holes with a basic patch kit. Once the surface is flat, sweep and mop from end to end. If you are removing a previous layer of paint, use a buffer to jar the old paint loose before repainting. Finishing your garage floor off with epoxy will help protect it from stains and damage. Apply two coats of epoxy twenty-four hours apart, followed by a sealing topcoat.

Organize Your Garage

In just a few steps, you can turn your garage from a cluttered oversized closet into an organized storage space. Start by taking inventory of the items in your garage. Do you have lots of tools? Is the space filled with sports equipment? Grouping like items together will keep your storage orderly. Next, decide where you would like to store your items. Overhead storage racks, rollers, and ceiling storage can significantly cut down on clutter, but these storage options are best reserved for infrequently accessed or seasonal items like holiday decorations and camping gear.

Keep frequently used items within reach. Magnetic wall panels are a great resource for your everyday tools and gardening equipment. Install shelving and drawers near your workbench to keep smaller hand tools, screws, and nails tidy and organized and add labels so you can keep track of them. If space is limited, consider a wall-mounted foldable workbench.

A hardboard hanging panel in a garage full of common hand tools like screwdrivers, measuring tape, scissors, duct tape, vice grips, etc.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Bluberries

Add Finishing Touches

Now it’s time to put the final touches on your garage makeover. Though installation may require the help of a professional, adding electrical outlets will pay dividends for the functionality of your garage. Installing bike hooks on the ceiling will help to save floor space and may provide just the clearance you need to park a vehicle inside. Lastly, consider upgrading your lighting. Newly installed lights will add value to your garage and make it safer.

Buyers • November 28, 2022

What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?

by Carlene Sandstrom

A mortgage broker explains the terms of an adjustable-rate mortgage to a man and a woman looking to buy a house

An integral part of the formula to successfully buying a home is securing the correct amount of financing. Once you’ve found the home you’d like to pursue, one of your primary tasks is exploring different loan products to see which best fits your situation. Eventually, you’ll come to a fork in the road where you’ll need to decide between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). The following information will help you gain a better understanding of ARMs to help you decide whether they’re right for you.

What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?

After your down payment, your mortgage will finance the remainder of your home purchase. Whereas fixed-rate mortgages allow you to lock in a specific interest rate and payment for the life of your loan, adjustable-rate mortgages’ interest rates will fluctuate over time, thus changing your loan payment. It’s typical for ARMs to begin with a low introductory interest rate, but once that first stage of the loan has passed, they will begin to shift up and down. ARMs generally have a cap that specifies the maximum rate that can occur for that loan.

Let’s say you secure an adjustable-rate mortgage with 30-year terms, the first five of which are at a fixed rate. When the variable interest portion of the loan kicks in, your mortgage’s fluctuations will be measured against an index. If the index is higher than when you secured the loan, your rate and loan payment will go up—and vice versa. How often your ARM rates change depends on your agreement with your lender. Talk to your mortgage broker to learn more about the characteristics of adjustable-rate mortgages.

A mortgage broker shakes hands with a man and a woman as they secure the terms of their adjustable-rate mortgage

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FG Trade

Different Types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)

Payment-Option ARM: You’ll have flexibility to choose your monthly payments with a payment-option ARM, including interest-only payments and minimum payments that don’t cover interest. These loan products can get home buyers into hot water quickly when rates increase.

Interest-Only ARM: With an interest-only ARM, you pay just the interest on the loan for a specified introductory period, then the principal payments kick in on top. The longer the introductory period, the higher your payments will be when the delayed principal payments enter the equation.

Hybrid ARM: As outlined above, a hybrid ARM begins with a fixed-rate introductory period followed by an adjustable-rate period. Typically, a hybrid ARM’s fixed-rate period lasts anywhere between three to 10 years, and its rates adjust at an agreed-upon frequency during the adjustable-rate period, such as once every six months or once a year.

Pros and Cons of an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)

Pros	Cons
The low introductory rate allows you to save money and plan for when the adjustable-rate period kicks in.	If you plan to live in the home for a long time, a fixed-rate mortgage may be a better option.
If you plan on selling in a few years, you can use the proceeds to pay back your mortgage before the fixed-rate period ends.	Without knowing what will happen to interest rates, your monthly payments could become unaffordable.
If the index decreases over time, you could end up with a lower interest rate and monthly payments.	Financial planning is more difficult with an ARM, since there’s no telling what your monthly payments will be one year to the next.

Market News • Matthew Gardner Report • November 14, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023

by Carlene Sandstrom

This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023

1. There Is No Housing Bubble

Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.

Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.

2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop

Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.

Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.

3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly

Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.

4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One

With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.

5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic

We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.

6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)

The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.

7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase

Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.

Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.

8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal

Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.

9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue

In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.

Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.

10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously

Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.

But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.

About Matthew Gardner

Market News • Market Report • October 26, 2022

Q3 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Carlene Sandstrom

Regional Economic Overview

The Western Washington labor market continues to expand. The addition of 110,000 jobs over the past 12 months represents an impressive increase of 4.9%. All but seven counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses. In total, the region has recovered all the jobs lost and has added an additional 30,000 new positions. The regional unemployment rate in August was 3.8%. This is .2% higher than at the end of the second quarter. That said, county data is not seasonally adjusted, which is likely the reason for the modest increase. The labor force has not expanded at its normal pace, which is starting to impact job growth. Although the likelihood of a recession starting at some point this winter has risen, I am not overly concerned at this point; however, I anticipate businesses may start to taper hiring if they feel demand for their goods and services is softening.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter, 19,455 homes traded hands, representing a drop of 29.2% from the same period a year ago. Sales were 15.4% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Listing activity continues to increase, with the average number of homes for sale up 103% from a year ago and 61% higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Year over year, sales fell across the board, but when compared to second quarter they were higher in Mason, Cowlitz, Jefferson, and Clallam counties.

❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:6. This ratio has been dropping for the past three quarters and indicates a market moving back toward balance. The only question is whether it will overshoot and turn into a buyer’s market.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Higher financing costs and more choice in the market continue to impact home prices. Although prices rose an average of 3.6% compared to a year ago, they were down 9.9% from the prior quarter. The current average sale price of a home in Western Washington is $748,569.

❱ The change in list prices is a good leading indicator and we have seen a change in the market. All but two counties (Island and Jefferson) saw median list prices either static or lower than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Prices rose in all but two counties, and several counties saw price growth well above their long-term averages.

❱ With the number of homes for sale rising and list prices starting to pull back, it’s not surprising to see price growth falter. We are going through a reversion following the overstimulated market of 2020 and 2021. There will be some ugly numbers in terms of sales and prices as we move through this period of adjustment, but the pain will be temporary.

Mortgage Rates

This remains an uncertain period for mortgage rates. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond purchases in 2013, investors were accused of having a “taper tantrum,” and we are seeing a similar reaction today. The Fed appears to be content to watch the housing market go through a period of pain as they throw all their tools at reducing inflation.

As a result, mortgage rates are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only continues to push rates much higher, but also creates violent swings in both directions. My current forecast calls for rates to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before starting to slowly pull back. That said, they will remain in the 6% range until the end of 2023.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 5.62% figure in Q3 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 6.7% in Q4 2022, 6.55% in Q1 2023, 6.35% in Q2 2023, 6.15% in Q3 2023, and 5.60% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 24 days for a home to sell in the third quarter of the year. This was seven more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and eight days more than in the second quarter.

❱ King and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 19 days to sell.

❱ Only one county (San Juan) saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. San Juan was also the only county to see market time drop between the second and third quarters of this year.

❱ The greatest increase in market time compared to a year ago was in Grays Harbor, where it took an average of 13 more days for homes to sell. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, Thurston County saw average market time rise the most (from 9 to 20 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q3 2022. King and Kitsap counties have the lowest DOM at 19, followed by Thurston and Snohomish at 20, Island and Pierce at 21, Whatcom and Skagit at 23, Cowlitz at 24, Mason at 25, Lewis at 26, Clallam and Jefferson at 27, and Grays Harbor and San Juan at 34.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Listings are up, sales are down, and a shift toward buyers has started. After a decade of sellers dominating the market, it is far too early to say that the shift is enough to turn the market in favor of buyers, but the pendulum has started to swing in their direction. A belief that the housing market is on its way to collapsing will keep some buyers sidelined, while others may be waiting for mortgage rates to settle down. Whatever their reasons, I maintain that we will see a brief period where annual price growth will turn negative in several markets, but it is only because the market is normalizing. I certainly don’t see any systemic risk of home values falling like they did in the mid-to-late 2000s.

A speedometer graph indicating a slight seller's market in Western Washington for Q3 2022.

All things considered, I have moved the needle toward buyers, but it remains, for the time being, a seller’s market.

About Matthew Gardner

Sellers • October 24, 2022

7 Tips for Staging Your Home Yourself

by Carlene Sandstrom

A living room with neutral colored modern décor staged in preparation for an open house

Nowadays, home staging is an integral part of the home selling process. The impact of home staging is crystal clear, but how you go about it deserves some consideration. Many homeowners will hire a home staging professional, trusting their expertise to make their home as appealing as possible to buyers. However, if hiring a professional isn’t in your budget, taking a DIY approach to home staging can deliver its own benefits.

7 Tips for Staging Your Home Yourself

1. Declutter

The first rule of home staging: make it tidy! A well-staged home should make potential buyers feel comfortable and at ease. To make that happen, it’s important that the spaces in your home are free of clutter. Consider investing in storage bins or a separate storage space temporarily to pare down the items in your home as much as possible.

2. Deep Clean

To really make your home sparkle, it will need more than a cursory cleaning. On top of your usual cleaning routine, get those hard-to-reach and uncommon spots throughout your home that will make it feel spotless. Putting some elbow grease into your bathroom surfaces, underneath and behind furniture, baseboards, and all switches and handles will make a difference when guests enter your home.

3. Fresh Paint

Not only does adding a coat of fresh paint do wonders for the look of your home, it’s a low-cost, high-ROI investment for a DIY project as important as home staging. Going for neutral colors will help to create balance in your interior while appealing to a wide spectrum of buyers’ tastes. It’s the splashes of color on top of a neutral foundation that will help guide visitors’ eyes from room to room.

Wooden bedroom interior with high beamed ceiling, grey carpet floor and large bed with neatly arranged pillows

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: irina88w

4. Curb Appeal

You only get once chance to make a first impression on potential buyers visiting your home and upping your curb appeal will give you the best chance of wowing them. Take a trip to your local hardware store and prepare to spend some time working in the front yard. Projects that improve the look and quality of your lawn, flower beds, walkways, outdoor lighting, windows, and trim will impress buyers and can increase the value of your home.

5. De-Personalize

Once a buyer pulls up to your property, you want to give them every opportunity to imagine themselves in the home. That’s why it’s important to de-personalize your interior and let them fill it with their own imagination. Remove all family photos, notes, personal gifts, and the like from your home. Aim for a décor style that’s not too ornate and not too bland—think calm, simple, and clean.

6. Focus on Accents

Once you’ve applied fresh paint, boosted your curb appeal, and de-personalized your home, you’re ready to add décor accents. Again, the most important thing is that buyers feel comfortable in your home, so your accents should reflect that notion. Add area rugs that are inviting but not too loud, keep freshly folded towels in the bathroom, and consider adding house plants throughout your spaces to make them feel natural.

7. Design Hacks

A few key design hacks will help you round out your DIY home staging project. If you’re struggling with making the smaller spaces in your home feel comfortable, try adding a mirror. Mirrors help to reflect light and can help narrow or cramped spaces feel bigger. Arrange your living room furniture in a way that emphasizes the room’s dimensions. Since you’re designing your home with open houses in mind, the TV no longer needs to be the focal point of the living room.

Windermere Community • October 17, 2022

Windermere Foundation Gala Raises $1.6 Million

by Carlene Sandstrom

On stage at the Windermere Foundation Gala at the Sheraton Grand, members of Windermere Real Estate senior leadership receive the Excellence Award from the 5th Avenue Theatre on behalf of the Windermere Foundation

In what has already been a banner year for the Windermere Foundation, the inaugural Windermere Foundation Gala took things to new heights. Held on the evening of September 30 at the Sheraton Grand in downtown Seattle, Windermere agents, owners, and staff dressed to the nines for a night of live entertainment and fundraising for low-income and homeless families throughout the Western U.S.

With 2022 being Windermere’s 50^th anniversary, the company set its sights on reaching $50 million in total donations for the Windermere Foundation by the end of the year. At the end of 2021, the grand total stood at $46 million raised since the Foundation began in 1989, leaving a roughly $4 million gap to reach the $50 million goal. Through the spring and summer, we saw an outpouring of support as Windermere offices around the network stepped up their fundraising and giving efforts. By the end of July, total year-to-date donations surged past $2 million, pushing the grand total to nearly $48 million.

The Windermere Foundation Gala

Then came the night of the Gala, during which the Windermere Foundation would receive the Excellence Award from the 5th Avenue Theatre. Windermere founder John Jacobi and family accepted the award on behalf of Windermere and expressed their commitment to continue their legacy of giving both personally and through the Windermere Foundation. But the Gala was more than a celebration; it was a massive fundraiser, with proceeds from ticket sales, table purchases, donations, and auction bids going back to communities throughout the Windermere footprint.

Windermere Foundation Gala attendees bid on a pizza oven in the ballroom foyer of the Grand Sheraton hotel in Seattle, WA

Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com

As the Gala attendees entered the foyer of the Sheraton Grand Ballroom, they bid on silent auction packages displayed throughout the room. Up for auction were locally curated experiences and goods alike, including multiple-night stays at luxury resorts, tickets to a Broadway production, and more. Next was the live auction. Bids went up for 11 special packages, including a skiing adventure at an upscale resort in Park City, a guided fly-fishing excursion in Montana, and others. As part of an exclusive Pearl Jam auction package, their guitarist Mike McCready was in attendance, adding his signature on stage to an electric guitar signed by the band members.

Pearl Jam guitarist Mike McCready signs an electric guitar on stage at the Windermere Foundation gala. The item would go up for auction as part of a Pearl Jam package.

Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com

Finally, the Gala attendees participated in Raise the Paddle, where they contributed donations at different levels. Windermere founder John Jacobi kickstarted the giving with a $100,000 donation, and from there, auctioneer John Curley guided the audience through descending levels of support, calling out bidder number after bidder number in what was an outpouring of giving from the audience. The Windermere network more than doubled the $250,000 goal of Raise the Paddle, ultimately raising $520,250 in donations.

Windermere Foundation Gala attendees hold their bidder numbers in the air as they contribute to Raise the Paddle, collectively raising $520,250 in donations.

Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com

In total, the Windermere Foundation Gala raised $1.6 million, catapulting Windermere towards its goal of reaching $50 million in total donations by the end of 2022.

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.